ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[latitude_20]

Looks like really dry air to the west and 10 knot shear all the way up to the keys - any thoughts on how that will play into this?

[Wx_Warrior]

must play into it somewhere because gfs & EURO not keen on strengthening this premature Bon

[HURAKAN]

Convengerce:



Divergerce:



Quite impressive

[KWT]

Yeah, then again the GFS not being keen on it isn't really all that important given it weren't keen on Alex either...

Anyway the HPC thinking suggests a fairly noteable NW jog once it enters the Gulf, I'd have my doubts about it being that extreme but obviously its early days. if it stays an open wave it probably goes into Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

how does this system's track correspond to 'the box' (cant remember the correct name for it).. the idea behind this box is something to the effect of, historically storms that have formed into a TC have traveled through this region.. (not saying that a system passing through this region has a better chance of forming).. am I recalling this correctly??

well typically the Hebert box is for already established tropical systems that pass through the area of the NE leeward islands.. I guess it could apply to even waves as the flow or motion of the system would essentially be the same and since this system passed right through it and is doing exactly what is described by the hebert box after passage. we can possibly add it to the list of systems that followed one of those tracks that is of course if it develops..

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, then again the GFS not being keen on it isn't really all that important given it weren't keen on Alex either...

Anyway the HPC thinking suggests a fairly noteable NW jog once it enters the Gulf, I'd have my doubts about it being that extreme but obviously its early days. if it stays an open wave it probably goes into Texas.

once thing is pretty certain .. we wont be seeing such low pressure with low winds as we saw with alex because the background pressure are much higher with this system. we may actually see a more normal pressure wind ratio

[wxman57]

Busy day today. Satellite imagery indicates that 97L is well on its way to becoming a depression. Still lacks that well-defined LLC most likely, but I think it may be there when recon arrives tomorrow. Could even be a TS by tomorrow afternoon. After that, I don't see much to hinder continued intensification on Thu/Fri as it approaches S. FL. Could easily be a hurricane by then.

Next question would be about the track. Lots of uncertainty as to the strength of the ridge to the north Fri-Sun. Models have not been consistent in that area. Euro is stronger with the ridge on the 12Z run and the GFS is weaker. Canadian is in between. I don't trust the HWRF as far as I could throw it (yet), and the GFDL doesn't do well with weak systems. Forget the BAMs, as they won't be good in this situation.

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous.

[Ivanhater]

Busy day today. Satellite imagery indicates that 97L is well on its way to becoming a depression. Still lacks that well-defined LLC most likely, but I think it may be there when recon arrives tomorrow. Could even be a TS by tomorrow afternoon. After that, I don't see much to hinder continued intensification on Thu/Fri as it approaches S. FL. Could easily be a hurricane by then.

Next question would be about the track. Lots of uncertainty as to the strength of the ridge to the north Fri-Sun. Models have not been consistent in that area. Euro is stronger with the ridge on the 12Z run and the GFS is weaker. Canadian is in between. I don't trust the HWRF as far as I could throw it (yet), and the GFDL doesn't do well with weak systems. Forget the BAMs, as they won't be good in this situation.

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous.

Wxman you have no idea how much we wait to see your thoughts on this board. Good thing the certainty is not that great cause I don't like your gut feeling right now. Go eat something!

[xcool22]

wxman57 .how about pizza

[Rainband]

Me either Ivanhater because I would be on the right of it too close for me. I hate power outages especially when I am on vacation. Give me your address Wxman I will send you a pizza

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity @ 21z

[dixiebreeze]

Hi Rainband, if she travels along the west coast of Fla., we'll get the dirty side of it. Especially if the eastern panhandle is the eventual target.

[Blown Away]

Next update where do you think the NHC places the center??

[Brent]

Busy day today. Satellite imagery indicates that 97L is well on its way to becoming a depression. Still lacks that well-defined LLC most likely, but I think it may be there when recon arrives tomorrow. Could even be a TS by tomorrow afternoon. After that, I don't see much to hinder continued intensification on Thu/Fri as it approaches S. FL. Could easily be a hurricane by then.

Next question would be about the track. Lots of uncertainty as to the strength of the ridge to the north Fri-Sun. Models have not been consistent in that area. Euro is stronger with the ridge on the 12Z run and the GFS is weaker. Canadian is in between. I don't trust the HWRF as far as I could throw it (yet), and the GFDL doesn't do well with weak systems. Forget the BAMs, as they won't be good in this situation.

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous.

Wow... what a post. I've been waiting for you to post all day though. Thanks!

[wxman57]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

[Aric Dunn]

Next update where do you think the NHC places the center??

there is no center.... but best track will likely be near ... 20.89° N 68.26° W lol

[cycloneye]

Punta Cana in the NE tip of DR at this hour has light WSW winds. Thank you 57 for that complete discussion.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic 
(MDPC) 18-34N 068-22W 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Jul 20, 2010 - 06:00 PM EDTJul 20, 2010 - 05:00 PM CDTJul 20, 2010 - 04:00 PM MDTJul 20, 2010 - 03:00 PM PDTJul 20, 2010 - 02:00 PM ADTJul 20, 2010 - 01:00 PM HDT
2010.07.20 2200 UTC 
Wind  from the WSW (250 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Cumulonimbus clouds observed 
Temperature  80 F (27 C) 
Dew Point  73 F (23 C) 
Relative Humidity  78% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa) 


[miamijaaz]

Hey all. I'm from Miami, but on vacation in the Turks & Caicos. Flying back to Miami Saturday morning (I think!). I either have the best or the worst timing in the world (depending on how you look at it!).

Anyways, just saw this on the news. Not sure how close this thing is supposed to go over the Turks, but so far gotta tell you, it's a beautiful day! Sunny skies, a bit windy, but it's been windy for the last 2 days.

I'll try to post observations every once in a while (assuming the system passes close to here of course). See ya.

[Blown Away]

Next update where do you think the NHC places the center??

there is no center.... but best track will likely be near ... 20.89° N 68.26° W lol

I meant "best track", I love the precision on your location! 97L looks a little ragged rat now.

[Scorpion]

Wow wxman, thanks for the analysis. We're supposed to be visiting family in Ft. Lauderdale at their timeshare on Friday, guess it won't be very good beach weather (well it might be for me)