ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cpdaman]

are pro-mets pretty much in shock?

bc i haven't heard much response.....us commoners are just running around like turkey post axe

[KWT]

The farther north it goes the lighter the shear will get and we should see a come back later this afternoon. if the center reforms or not does not matter much is still a weak depression. this motion is again temporary and will have little affect on the long term motion. we should see a more westerly motion starting later as well. The shear was forecast but was not supposed to be the strong. the interaction with that other vorticity seems to be coming to an end shortly.

Not sure thats the case though Aric, it really could make the difference, for example if the upper ridge center sets up at say 32N then a system at 30N could well get bent back west again, but if it is at 33N and the ridge builds in then obviously it'll be past the axis and carry on recurving...these tight situations can be different.

Mind you if the old LLC keeps itself going then I think it could quite easily bend back WSW to try and scoop under the MLC...or the MLC could try and go it alone as its looking quite strong...

Also the Ascat does suggest the LLC is very stretched earlier on so we could quite easily see a new LLC form under the MLC IMO.

[Air Force Met]

I'm seeing the LLC moving NNW away from the convection and does not appear to be wrapping back around. So either TD6 will reform a LLC under the convection or TD6 is in trouble.

This is not going to reform a new LLC under the convection. Lok at how wrapped the LLC is. Convection will have to fire over the center.

Patience everyone. Every year we go through this. People's attention spans are so short...especially in a "slow" year. You see one set back and the sky is falling. It's not in trouble...its not a gonner...its a little sheared and given how well put together the LLC is...it will be fine.

[ColinDelia]

If you were in a ship right at the center and looked up would you see the swirl in the clouds ? I think you would

Yes, What do you see when you look from space? Swirls, so both ways swirl.

The wildcards are the height of the clouds and the radius. Too big a circle of clouds too low and all you see is a curved line of clouds . But maybe I should start a new thread

[Aric Dunn]

The farther north it goes the lighter the shear will get and we should see a come back later this afternoon. if the center reforms or not does not matter much is still a weak depression. this motion is again temporary and will have little affect on the long term motion. we should see a more westerly motion starting later as well. The shear was forecast but was not supposed to be the strong. the interaction with that other vorticity seems to be coming to an end shortly.

Not sure thats the case though Aric, it really could make the difference, for example if the upper ridge center sets up at say 32N then a system at 30N could well get bent back west again, but if it is at 33N and the ridge builds in then obviously it'll be past the axis and carry on recurving...these tight situations can be different.

Mind you if the old LLC keeps itself going then I think it could quite easily bend back WSW to try and scoop under the MLC...or the MLC could try and go it alone as its looking quite strong...

Also the Ascat does suggest the LLC is very stretched earlier on so we could quite easily see a new LLC form under the MLC IMO.

Whats all the "old LLC" talk. there is only one right now there are no signs of it reforming. convection will again fire over the center soon enough. and this "stair stepping always occurs even in weak systems. Like i said this is only a temporary motion and that being said should not have a significant change in the long range. now if for some reason this NNW motion continued for long enough then yes... but the whole system is not moving NNW the center is rotating around within itself ( which is normal) and will soon enough look like its moving back WNW..

[Aric Dunn]

I'm seeing the LLC moving NNW away from the convection and does not appear to be wrapping back around. So either TD6 will reform a LLC under the convection or TD6 is in trouble.

This is not going to reform a new LLC under the convection. Lok at how wrapped the LLC is. Convection will have to fire over the center.

Patience everyone. Every year we go through this. People's attention spans are so short...especially in a "slow" year. You see one set back and the sky is falling. It's not in trouble...its not a gonner...its a little sheared and given how well put together the LLC is...it will be fine.

exactly... if you all read previous pages you will see the answers you seek.

[Air Force Met]

are pro-mets pretty much in shock?

bc i haven't heard much response.....us commoners are just running around like turkey post axe

No.

Pro-mets are a little more patient than most of the board. We understand that you don't write a storm off because of a short term setback...or call for the end of the world 6 hours later when -80C tops appear over it. Its a process.

PATIENCE. Its the main character trait that separates an amateur from a pro...

[KWT]

This is not going to reform a new LLC under the convection. Lok at how wrapped the LLC is. Convection will have to fire over the center.

Patience everyone. Every year we go through this. People's attention spans are so short...especially in a "slow" year. You see one set back and the sky is falling. It's not in trouble...its not a gonner...its a little sheared and given how well put together the LLC is...it will be fine.

I wonder whether the LLC heads back W back towards the circulation?

The interesting thing that makes the idea of a new LLC possibly trying to develop is there is quite a sharp trough off to the west under the MLC right now accorcding to the Ascat imagery...the LLC has a decent circulation though it has weakened IMO.

No way its a gooner though I agree, this still will very likely become a hurricane...though that being said don't expect anything to get going quickly given several of the models spotted this current phase of holding steady and jogging northwards.

Aric, yeah I know about stairstepping but trust me this really is a tight situation and I'm not kidding when I say even 2-3 degrees out in terms of latitude from the models means the difference between a recurve and a big threat to the E.coast....but as you say I think it will bend back near west again soon.

[Lowpressure]

are pro-mets pretty much in shock?

bc i haven't heard much response.....us commoners are just running around like turkey post axe

No.

Pro-mets are a little more patient than most of the board. We understand that you don't write a storm off because of a short term setback...or call for the end of the world 6 hours later when -80C tops appear over it. Its a process.

PATIENCE. Its the main character trait that separates an amateur from a pro...

That may be true, but no one called for a north movement of the LLC this early. It is very interesting to watch and does beg questions, from any met watcher. You can not tell me the pros are looking at this and not asking what is going on, what will happen next.

[Vortex]

gotta love the tropics..keeps you guessing

[SeminoleWind]

Looks like the L.L.C. is Fading to me

[Frank2]

I've been busy in the EPAC for the past couple of days (lol), so haven't had a chance to post here...

It appears we have strong shear from the east - probably no TS upgrade for at least today...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

P.S. TS Frank is (was) named after Dr. Frank (NHC Director of the 1970's-1980's), and I'd like to think that also includes the many employees at that time of a similar name (ahem)...

[Aric Dunn]

are pro-mets pretty much in shock?

bc i haven't heard much response.....us commoners are just running around like turkey post axe

No.

Pro-mets are a little more patient than most of the board. We understand that you don't write a storm off because of a short term setback...or call for the end of the world 6 hours later when -80C tops appear over it. Its a process.

PATIENCE. Its the main character trait that separates an amateur from a pro...

That may be true, but no one called for a north movement of the LLC this early. It is very interesting to watch and does beg questions, from any met watcher. You can not tell me the pros are looking at this and not asking what is going on, what will happen next.

its not a true north movement.. its the center rotating around inside the overall circulation. this is a common happening and can be explained with fluid dynamics. if you look at the overall motion of the system i.e take a look at a large view of the system you will see its still basically heading WNW..

[KWT]

The only thing that makes me think a reformation isn't so outlandish was the Ascat presentation.

Whilst it did show a strong LLC it also showed some sort of surface troughing occuring further west...its not the presentation that would would be totally suggestive of a system strengthening too much and the shear aloft will probably help to prevent much strengthening in the short term.

I suspect as Aric has said it'll bend back soon, the fact it has some sort of surface turning further west, however weak, probably helps to partly explain why yhe LLC shot northwards when it did.

The GFS a few dyas ago showed this interaction very neatly indeed, and showed how the main system bends back westward as the elongated surface convergence/troughing further west sort of rotates around.

[Aric Dunn]

the low level clouds are beginning to thicken and we again should see convection fire over the center shortly and a more obvious WNW motion...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

the low level clouds are beginning to thicken and we again should see convection fire over the center shortly and a more obvious WNW motion...

WNW motion now would still put this way north of the forecast point and thats the thing, a track much north of the current models expectations would probably increase a recurve chance by a fair amount.

[WeatherEmperor]

If you look at the latest visible Floater loops, you can see that the exposed center is moving way north of the forecast points by the NHC (When the loop starts, just click on "Trop Points") What impact, if any, could this have on it's future track? Does that make it more likely to recurve like the CMC shows because it would feel the weakness more, or would it still be able to bend back west anyways like the HWRF shows?

<RICKY>

[Aric Dunn]

the low level clouds are beginning to thicken and we again should see convection fire over the center shortly and a more obvious WNW motion...

WNW motion now would still put this way north of the forecast point and thats the thing, a track much north of the current models expectations would probably increase a recurve chance by a fair amount.

thats not that far KWT ... stair stepping still will lead to a average WNW .. i bet late this evening its nearing the next forecast point..

[cheezyWXguy]

the low level clouds are beginning to thicken and we again should see convection fire over the center shortly and a more obvious WNW motion...

WNW motion now would still put this way north of the forecast point and thats the thing, a track much north of the current models expectations would probably increase a recurve chance by a fair amount.

thats not that far KWT ... stair stepping still will lead to a average WNW .. i bet late this evening its nearing the next forecast point..

Yeah in fact its already looking a little better now. A little convection blob on the center starting, and it looks to be resuming its more westerly motion as of now. I get the feeling we could see quite a change in appearance overnight tonight.