WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.7S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.6S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.6S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.0S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.4S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.9S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFI-
CATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 105
KNOTS, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 115
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SLOWLY DECREA-
SING AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ULUI.
AROUND TAU 72 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, CAUSING THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE A MINOR IMPACT TO THE SYSTEM AS
IT MAINTAINS AS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
WITH TC 20P TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, EXTENDING TO NEW
CALEDONIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA TO WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY,
LEADING TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. ULUI IS EX-
PECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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