ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

WNW wind in Bonaire

[srainhoutx]

[brunota2003]

WNW wind in Bonaire

Interesting...though it is only 5 mph, so it could be local effects. Would be nice to see a sat image with the surface obs/ships/buoys placed on them

[poof121]

Maybe so, nothing on ASCAT yet.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/

[Ivanhater]

WNW wind in Bonaire

Interesting...though it is only 5 mph, so it could be local effects. Would be nice to see a sat image with the surface obs/ships/buoys placed on them

[poof121]

WNW wind in Bonaire

Interesting...though it is only 5 mph, so it could be local effects. Would be nice to see a sat image with the surface obs/ships/buoys placed on them

Yeah, from that pic, looks like the wind could be funneling through that inlet. Especially if there is high elevation on the smaller island.

[Ivanhater]

[Rockin4NOLA]

Someone referenced the Sosnowski article so I thought I'd post that here (although I realize most of you have probably already read it...)

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... urrica.asp

I guess we are waiting to see where the ridge forms? If I understand correctly - if it forms more to the west, then 93L would take a more northerly GOM track, whereas if it forms more to the east, then 93L would track westwards?

[Aquawind]

That's a little more south like what I was thinking looking at the blob..

[srainhoutx]

[ronjon]

Jeff Masters take on 93L:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1513

[thetruesms]

yeah, this needs to just go ahead and poof for a bit. I need to get caught up after being out of the office for the last week and a half before I can start dealing with this stuff

But without being able to comment on 92L since I was without internet access last week, it looks like it has the most potential of anything so far in this young season.

[fci]

Yea, Ivanhater has been quick to jump this season. Remember 92L? LOL

Now if I remember from past seasons wxwarrior, I thought you were a Euro fan

Good to see you back buddy

Given the situation in the Gulf, I would not blame anyone along the coast for being nervous about any invest or potential issue for the GOM.

[Ivanhater]

[Rockin4NOLA]

I don't know if I'm reading that image right but are those pockets of dry air to 93L's N/NW?...That storm looks like its got good structure...

[x-y-no]

Based on the IR3 imagery, the environment around 93L looks very moist to me. Don't think we can count on dry air being a problem for this one.

[jasons2k]

I don't know if I'm reading that image right but are those pockets of dry air to 93L's N/NW?...That storm looks like its got good structure...

Look at the WV image a few posts up.

Nice, big moisture envelope to work with. Dunno that I agree with the "Structure" comment though - after all, it's still an open wave. Not much structure to it yet.

That said, given time, I now do expect this one to develop. I don't see anything holding it back.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Rockin4NOLA]

I don't know if I'm reading that image right but are those pockets of dry air to 93L's N/NW?...That storm looks like its got good structure...

Look at the WV image a few posts up.

Nice, big moisture envelope to work with. Dunno that I agree with the "Structure" comment though - after all, it's still an open wave. Not much structure to it yet.

That said, given time, I now do expect this one to develop. I don't see anything holding it back.

Yea you're right, structure was the wrong word..I guess what I meant is that it seems to have a good formation basis to develop from...I dunno, I think I'm just trying to come up with scenerios where 93L doesn't become a GOM problem...I know all we can do is wait...but...

[Comanche]

So, 30% now. Moving along

ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE