ATL: KARL - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

[South Texas Storms]

wow the 12z euro is even further south. it barely makes it into the boc

[Wx_Warrior]

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see a whole lot with this one from the Euro but wow does it explode Igor. What a massive and powerful system, thank god that's recurving because it would be a disaster.

[cycloneye]

18z Model Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 091852
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1852 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100909 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100909  1800   100910  0600   100910  1800   100911  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  61.0W   12.4N  61.6W   12.7N  62.5W   13.0N  63.6W
BAMD    12.3N  61.0W   12.2N  62.2W   12.3N  64.0W   12.4N  65.9W
BAMM    12.3N  61.0W   12.2N  61.7W   12.4N  62.9W   12.6N  64.3W
LBAR    12.3N  61.0W   12.5N  61.9W   13.1N  63.3W   13.8N  65.1W
SHIP        20KTS          27KTS          37KTS          49KTS
DSHP        20KTS          27KTS          37KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100911  1800   100912  1800   100913  1800   100914  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  64.9W   14.3N  68.3W   15.1N  71.8W   16.6N  75.3W
BAMD    12.4N  68.1W   12.4N  73.4W   11.9N  79.2W   10.9N  85.0W
BAMM    12.8N  66.1W   13.2N  70.0W   13.7N  73.8W   14.7N  77.3W
LBAR    14.7N  67.3W   16.3N  72.4W   17.7N  77.6W   19.0N  81.9W
SHIP        62KTS          78KTS          87KTS          96KTS
DSHP        62KTS          78KTS          87KTS          96KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  61.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  59.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  58.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[HouTXmetro]

Look at that ridging... Well the two most reliable models, euro and gfs says Mexico. Mexico it is.....imo

[Wx_Warrior]

Basically EURO lost it on 12z

[Wx_Warrior]

Regardless the strength...check ridging:

[Ivanhater]

We will have to see how strong it gets in the short term. The Canadian has been very consistent in bringing this further north.

[Vortex]

Nam/Cmc/Nogaps have been holding on to the short-term N run at PR & Vicinity since inception...we should be able to get a better handle as we progress through the day and into the overnight as to how much validity the northern camp will have...

[Ivanhater]

Most GFS Ensembles are further north than the operational and one lone Charley hook

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

Ya'll know the drill. Get back on topic asap!

[nashrobertsx]

Regardless the strength...check ridging:

I have been so out of touch. Can someone tell me what those 2 canes in this pic are? 918mb? wow, is that IGOR and the one behind it is 92L? Thanks!

[South Texas Storms]

igor is the strongest one and the one behind it has yet to come off of africa. 92l is already inland in mexico by then according to this model.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam focuses the center between Barbados and Martinique in 36 hours

[Vortex]

looks reasonable to me and the synoptics at the 200 and 500mb level would support a movement to the nnw/nw...

[Vortex]

Center appears to be just west of barbados and if you look at the vis loop its clearly evident its moving off to the NW.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensembles seem to suggest a stall in the BOC with a possible drift NNE

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Saw that. We were just discussing the N/NE drift at the end. Heights do start lowering out west during that time frame.