ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looking like ready to be classified.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look that way cycloneye, its exceptionally far east to be upgraded but then again as I said conditions are favourable for it.

Should lift out pretty quickly but the models do suggest it sort of gets stuck by about 30-35N and so we may see a very slow moving hurricane by this time next week we will see...

[WeatherGuesser]

Near 100% as of 8AM TWO

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=Up to near100%

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[OURAGAN]

It seems to me the system is at 12°2N and not at 13°N on the vis image.

[Vortmax1]

Does anyone have a link for a current visible satellite shot of this area.
All of mine are either out of focus or 6 hours old.
TIA if you do.

[cwachal]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfull.html

click on the storm after going to that link

[TampaFl]

Are there any radar sites on the Cape Verde Islands?

[punkyg]

http://www.sat24.com/wa

look at this link, it may not show the whole system, but you'll get a good view of its cyclonic turning.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 93, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 124N, 205W, 30, 1006, DB, 0

no upgrade yet but that's likely to change

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N19W 8N20W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY TURN INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT ANY TIME TODAY. ANYONE WHO IS
IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAIN-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W
AND 23W...RIGHT AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

based on the TCFA, the Cape Verde Islands disappeared into the ocean!! lol

[HURAKAN]

TD #12

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al122010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009121234
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 12, 2010, DB, O, 2010091106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL122010
AL, 12, 2010091006, , BEST, 0, 109N, 70W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 113N, 82W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091018, , BEST, 0, 118N, 96W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 114W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091106, , BEST, 0, 126N, 133W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 12, 2010091112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 161W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 121N, 172W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 182W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 195W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 125N, 208W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[senorpepr]

[KWT]

There we go we have TD12, probably will be a TS very quickly as well...if this one jogs NW then the CV islands could well get a direct hit by a strengthening TS...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

To be honest I suspect you could probably make a claim based on apperence that its probably a minimal TS right now, looking very good indeed...I suspect it will be a hurricane down the line.

[Vortmax1]

As good as it looks this morning there might be a possibility of going straight to TS status.

[abajan]

Keep an eye on the wind speeds recorded at Sal in the Cape Verde Islands. (Yes, it’s really named SAL. Isn’t that ironic? ) So far, the highest speed clocked was 26 mph a few hours ago.