ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Frank2]

Nearing TD status once again - but also nearing 15N, so thankfully another recurve very likely...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[MWatkins]

Nearing TD status once again - but also nearing 15N, so thankfully another recurve very likely...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Lot of storms have been north of 15N at this longitude and still have threatened land. There's a lot more to track forecasting than persistence...which is why the Climotology models are used as a baseline for skill comparisons.

I would go with the dynamical models over the statistical guidance for track any day of the week and twice on the weekends. And the dynamical models are not shouting recurve, unfortunately.

MW
Edit: PS: The center is probably closer to 14N than 15N based on the visible banding and microwave imagery.

[Frank2]

Sure, but that far east it's more likely it'll recurve than reach the US EC...

[HURAKAN]

steering winds

[mascpa]

I don't see a recurve, at least not in the short term.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring 14.6N/42.1W. Can see a fairly tight swirl there. Climatology does strongly suggest that a storm in this region in September would recurve east of the U.S. All but one (Okeechobee 1928) passing within 65nm of Gaston's current location have recurved east of the U.S. Nothing is impossible though. It would just take a very strong ridge to the north. However, the NAO is forecast to remain negative over the next week, so that would suggest recurve is more likely east of the U.S. My track has it impacting the NE Caribbean around next Wednesday, though.

[SCHawkFan]

Tweet from BigJoeBastardi: Gaston will make comeback over weekend ( its starting now)

[Typhoon_Willie]

Same thing here. It does not look like this system is going to recurve any time soon.

[KWT]

To be fair though most of the storms in this location Wxman57 are already either moving WNW/NW or recurving out to sea....and quite a few are hurricane by this point as well...hardly fair to compare a TW with a hurricane which will obviously be steered by far different features.

Odds are this one will be getting some way west between say 14-17N before it lifts out, could easily be at say 16.5N 60W...and then the chances of a hit increase...

The GFS solution looks good to me though right now, which would suggest a big threat to both the Eastern and possibly Central Caribbean Islands....thats why I like Hortense as a possible system to compare with.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS doesn't have it gaining hardly 0.1 deg latitude in 117 hrs. Finally reaches 15N past 61W. Seems a bit odd.

[HurrMark]

Yeah...this is a very troughy pattern in the western Atlantic...and the GFS shows it continuing for the next 16 days (even amplifying late in the period). By then we will be closing on on late September...I am thinking that unless we get something developing really close to home (and I mean really close...meaning west of 70 W) or in the Caribbean that we might go a second year in a row without a US hurricane landfall (and five years in a row without a major landfall...first time that would happen in almost 100 years). Still a lot of season left, but the clock is ticking...

[BigB0882]

I suppose a recurve is possible, even likely, but the way the GFS handles it seems all wrong. Movement seems way too slow to me and then the recurve is so abrupt. Every storm that has come down the line has recurved further west than first predicted. I see no reason this one will lift out as quickly as it is shown and go from WNW to NE so quickly. Again, I think that drastic recurve is relying on an unusually slow moving storm. I stick with my FL threat, this will get further West before it begins to lift out.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, being that we are getting close to the 2nd week of September, I'm thinking
that maybe we will get lucky without any more US landfalls.

I mean, nothing is developing at all in the carib or gulf, when it
should be this time of year. Looks like CV storms is all we got....

[bvigal]

Wxman57, you are so right. Gaston makes me nervous for those places in EC already impacted by Earl. I just got home this morning! Many here are STILL without power. The ghuts are piled full of debris and will stay that way until trees are first removed and power lines repaired. A big rain would spell disaster. Don't even want to think what some strong winds and heavy rain would do while everyone's still in 'cleanup mode'! And especially if this doesn't get reclassed soon enough, the public right now thinks Gaston is gone.

[MWatkins]

My concern is for the islands at this point. The suggestion of a recurve glossed over the fact that the recurve would happen over the islands, which are land!

From there, while an eventual US hit is statistically unlikely, it's not impossible. Writing it off now based on latitude alone is a bit premature.

MW

[wxman57]

Right, I do have Gaston as a hurricane approaching the NE Caribbean Wednesday. Oh, and by no means do I think the Gulf is done for 2010. It hasn't yet started. Look for activity to develop farther west by the last half of September and continue developing in the Caribbean/Gulf through October and into November.

[Vortex]

12Z indicates recurvature once passing the eastern Caribbean islands…I would caution people to wait on a few more runs before stating this is a “NO Threat” to the US. The last 48 hours began with this same general scenario then switched to the Bahamas, SFL, Texas and the Carolinas sprinkled in…Obviously, in the longer term GFS is trying to figure out the pattern and the further we get into September the more variance likely as a result of the changing seasons.

[MWatkins]

Right, I do have Gaston as a hurricane approaching the NE Caribbean Wednesday. Oh, and by no means do I think the Gulf is done for 2010. It hasn't yet started. Look for activity to develop farther west by the last half of September and continue developing in the Caribbean/Gulf through October and into November.

Agreed, and the concern is even higher for later in the season. The persistent trough has kept EVERYTHING out of the Caribbean. The heat content there has been almost untouched by so much as a tropical wave for the better part of the last 45 days!

MW

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

Right, I do have Gaston as a hurricane approaching the NE Caribbean Wednesday. Oh, and by no means do I think the Gulf is done for 2010. It hasn't yet started. Look for activity to develop farther west by the last half of September and continue developing in the Caribbean/Gulf through October and into November.

How does a track like Hortense from 1996 sound to you...thats personally what I think will happen and I think it may go a little west of the models still as well and possibly be even a threat to the C.Caribbean...

Also your quite right, in La Nina years you are exceptionally lucky not to get some major Caribbean development at some point from the 15th September to the end of the season, I'd almost certainly bank on a major hurricane in October/November and probably in the caribbean as well...