ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

Wondering where you were, you now have a few ensembles moving your way which means your back in the game baby!!

This may turn out to be a game that none of us can afford to play...I can't believe that it has already been five years since Wilma and many people in the area are complacent once again.

As far as track there is another storm that this could resemble. Tropical Storm Fay from a couple of years ago...This could cross the state very much like Fay did but hopefully much faster.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Wilma:


Fay:

[SouthFLTropics]

Thanks for the comparison gatorcane!

SFT

[ronjon]

Or this one from 1921.

[ROCK]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

Wondering where you were, you now have a few ensembles moving your way which means your back in the game baby!!

nah, never been in the ball game with this guy....but its fun to watch the models and speculate based on guidance.

Noticed that trof map about 4 pages ago bring the front all the way to MX City....

[SouthFLTropics]

Tampa Bay's worst nightmare...A strong storm making landfall just to the north of the Tampa metro area! That could rival Katrina in damage if it was a major going in there...

SFT

[tina25]

All of these Wilma/Charley comparisons are starting to make me feel a bit uneasy.

[Florida1118]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

Wondering where you were, you now have a few ensembles moving your way which means your back in the game baby!!

This may turn out to be a game that none of us can afford to play...I can't believe that it has already been five years since Wilma and many people in the area are complacent once again.

As far as track there is another storm that this could resemble. Tropical Storm Fay from a couple of years ago...This could cross the state very much like Fay did but hopefully much faster.

SFT

Here in Tampa we got under warnings and schools closed as it was possible Fay could have become a Hurricane... but we were generally (except a few areas in the Panhandle)the only area to not get TS winds...



I think this will either be a Charley track, or a MS storm.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian/HWRF/ And half of GFS ensembles look like a possible Opal track

Lots of scenarios

[SouthFLTropics]

All of these Wilma/Charley comparisons are starting to make me feel a bit uneasy.

Don't be uneasy Tina...Just watch and be prepared to act when the time comes. Right now there is no need to get uptight...We have a good amount of time to watch and see what develops. First rule in the tropics is there are no rules...Things (models, forecasts) can and will change. As a native Floridian who has been through my fair share of storms it has become accepted that this is part of life when living in the tropics.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

Way too early to even speculate on anything but this board is once again abuzz because "Florida" is in the conversation

[SouthFLTropics]

Canadian/HWRF/ And half of GFS ensembles look like a possible Opal track

Lots of scenarios

That wouldn't be good for you Michael...that's gonna cut into vodka and cranberry time!

SFT

[Vortex]

First model NAM of the 00z package rolling....

[Ptarmigan]

Content Removed. Go here.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109483&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=340

[BigB0882]

Way too early to even speculate on anything but this board is once again abuzz because "Florida" is in the conversation

FL has been in the conversation for days, though. Even way back before this was an invest.

[Blown Away]

Wilma type track is about as classic as you can get for SFL. The models have been in decent agreement with 95L near the Yucatan Channel in about 7 days. IMO, what's alarming is the recent trend with the 00z models moving 95L closer to and maybe just north of the Honduras coast which may allow 95L to become a hurricane w/o the over land weakening and then keeping the system just offshore as it turns towards the Yucatan Channel.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,remember that we have a main discussion thread for 95L.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109483&p=2072767#p2072767

[srainhoutx]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

Too early to tell and it is certainly possible it may go west of 90. Statistically speaking, Upper Texas Coast is not out of the woods yet, even though are chance goes down.

Awesome stats PT!

[Ptarmigan]

Awesome stats PT!

Thanks! It shows that Central America and Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on 95L. Tropical cyclones do not care for climatology. They have a mind of their own. The computers have backed off, but I would not be surprised it reverses again.

[Wx_Warrior]

After Sept 15, it was Rita on Sept. 22-23, 2005. remember it all too well.

Don't think Texas is a player here.