ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[KWT]

Its left behind a lot of low cloud which will probably slow the temp rise back up again over that region.

Still it looks like its just about over for 92L, will probably deactivate it soon...

[djones65]

I would be surprised to see them deactivate it as long as it is still a well defined circulation and producing isolated sporadic convection over or near the center. I agree its potential for development is near nil in the next few days, but if the circulation persists even if it is only low topped convection I would expect them to maintain it as an invest until the circulation opens up or is not identifiable. Just my humble opinion.

[OURAGAN]

Convection is on the increase since a few hours, it is not already dead.

[Gustywind]

Convection is on the increase since a few hours, it is not already dead.

How can say that OURAGAN? Are you sure? Tell me how...

[bvigal]

Look at this:

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Hey,they saw the data from bouy!

AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W,30, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[KWT]

Its doing its usual night-flare up, so it'll probably look ok until a few hours after sunrise tomorrow then it'll no doubt weaken again as it has done over the last few days.

In truth its probably been a TD at one stage in the last few days but the NHC have decided not to bother with upgrading it simply because of the expected downward turn in the atmospheric conditions and the general idea that they do tend to be very conservative with these systems in the central/Eastern Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, this system is history...So what if there is a some convection firing. That doesn't mean anything, especially since it will probably be gone just like every other time it's fired up.

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

That convection is well to the east of what's left of the LLC. It appears to be opening up and shearing apart. Chances of it surviving the shear over the next 3-5 days are slim.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N46W...ABOUT 850 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THIS LOW CENTER
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND
49W. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW CENTER. THE CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW...20 PERCENT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Is the first time since this system emerged Africa that has cloud tops of over 80C.But if 92L wants to survive,it has to sustain this big burst for many hours.

[bvigal]

That convection is well to the east of what's left of the LLC. It appears to be opening up and shearing apart. Chances of it surviving the shear over the next 3-5 days are slim.

I agree about the shear, wxman. In fact, it looks like it won't survive the shear next 12-24hrs. But I don't get what you mean about the convection being "well to the east" of LLC. At least not by 00z fix, and the 0015z sat pic, it looks to be dead center. Can you post one of your great pics and show us? Thanks!

[Gustywind]

Is the first time since this system emerged Africa that has cloud tops of over 80C.But if 92L wants to survive,it has to sustain this big burst for many hours.

Absolutely Luis and that's once again the BIG challenge for 92L, will it be sufficient?Time will tell...

[cycloneye]

Another view of those very high cloud tops (Black) in this burst.

[Hurricane Andrew]

wowzers

[cycloneye]

First time I have seen this TRIMM image but 92L looks good right now.Maybe in a couple of hours,this burst ends but as of now,is doing good.