ATL: Ex COLIN - Models
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WEakening at the moment and also looks to me like its further to the NE of the 12z run with a stronger upper trough...which is good for this system...not good for the system further south in the Caribbean...
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TwisterFanatic
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Woah! what is that between the Yucatan and Cuba at 120?
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Chigger_Lopez
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Chigger_Lopez
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Woah! what is that between the Yucatan and Cuba at 120?
Yeah, that storm looks all growed up!
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AdamFirst
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Woah! what is that between the Yucatan and Cuba at 120?
A completely different system apparently. TD4-Colin would be that weak reflection in the Atlantic north of Hispaniola
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: Re:
AdamFirst wrote:TwisterFanatic wrote:Woah! what is that between the Yucatan and Cuba at 120?
A completely different system apparently. TD4-Colin would be that weak reflection in the Atlantic north of Hispaniola
Yea, i see TD4 that just caught my eye.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Four - MODELS
That is the wave now south of Puerto Rico.
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Four - MODELS
The gfs is developing a storm from that wave in the eastern Caribbean, perhaps that's the one to watch, not TD 4.
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TD4 probably dead by 144hrs, but the 18z GFS does strengthen a little more then it did in the 12z upto say 72hrs, so this system probably has three days where conditions could strengthen.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Ikester
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Four - MODELS
Uhhhh, the 972mb cyclone near Lake Charles has my attention!
Edit: I misread...972 is at 300 mb. Sorry..
Edit: I misread...972 is at 300 mb. Sorry..
Last edited by Ikester on Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Four - MODELS
Interesting run for sure on the GOM storm but this thread is for TD4...Anyone is welcome to start a thread about the GOM Hurricane in Talking Tropics...
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Michael
The GFS totally loses this system before the end of the higher resolution period occurs.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Four - MODELS
00z Tropical Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 030038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100803 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100803 0000 100803 1200 100804 0000 100804 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 44.1W 14.7N 48.0W 16.3N 52.0W 18.0N 56.1W
BAMD 13.4N 44.1W 14.4N 47.2W 15.5N 50.2W 16.6N 53.1W
BAMM 13.4N 44.1W 14.6N 47.6W 16.1N 51.2W 17.7N 54.7W
LBAR 13.4N 44.1W 14.5N 47.6W 15.7N 51.2W 16.9N 54.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100805 0000 100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 59.7W 23.3N 65.5W 25.9N 68.8W 28.5N 70.8W
BAMD 17.8N 55.7W 19.7N 59.0W 20.0N 60.9W 20.0N 63.5W
BAMM 19.5N 57.6W 22.6N 61.6W 24.4N 64.1W 26.2N 67.0W
LBAR 18.2N 57.6W 20.5N 62.4W 23.4N 64.8W 27.2N 70.5W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS
DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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The NHC offical track is pretty much exactly down the middle of the line for the models, can see the CMC on the left side but if this one remains weak like it suspect then certainly can't rule out that solution.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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