ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Shuriken]

Maybe the recon flights are Decon flights Looks like someone is spraying tropical systems with Raid this year. Convection is breaking up again. But I guess it will be back later.

It's not breaking up; the LLC is directly under the hot tower of the western convective cluster (which has been flaring constantly, without a minute's worth of hesitancy. so far today even during diurnal minima). The new eastern blob is associated with a triple-point formed between the developing east-side banding and the old trough; it should weaken later today as the trough washes out.

[SouthDadeFish]

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

Good indicator that he's finally getting his act together.

[cycloneye]

The real answer to if it is getting it's act together will be when the plane that is flying right now towards Richard,reaches it and collects the data, then we will know what is really going on.

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it me or is the storm moving wnw or the center reformed to the north or northwestward abit??????!!!!!!!!!!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

is it me or is the storm moving wnw or the center reformed to the north or northwestward abit??????!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The waxing/waining of convection does make it look like it is moving NW, but I'm sure it is generally moving slowly west.

[HURAKAN]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

[cycloneye]

[Houstonia]

Nice - maybe Southeast Texas can actually get some rain out of Richard.

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/3066/204914w5nlsm.gif

[latitude_20]

Looks like NHC concurs that the center has reformed to the northwest. Could that shift the track to the north a bit?

[SouthFloridawx]

Still a couple more days till we know exactly how it's going to play out.

[cycloneye]

Plane flying at operational altitud.Let's see what they find.

[Weatherfreak000]

Great time for the RECON team to be out there as it seems to me Richard may be beginning something of a strengthening phase into tonight. The cold cloud tops have migrated back completely over the center. If they didn't find an organizing storm that would be a big shocker.

Edit: Intensity forecasting is going to be terrible with Richard. One way or the other.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying on operational altitud at 2,500 feet in this mission. Last set had plenty of low 30's.

[latitude_20]

Plane is flying on operational altitud at 2,500 feet in this mission. Last set had plenty of low 30's.

Not sure what to make of that, especially with that hot tower blasting away all day. Still early in the flight though.

[latitude_20]

Wow, the recon data really has me wondering what's up. Low wind readings.

[cycloneye]

Wow, the recon data really has me wondering what's up. Low wind readings.

They still have not gone to the NE quad.They made the first pass from NW to SE.

[cycloneye]

Decoded first Vortex Message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 23:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°46'N 82°16'W (15.7667N 82.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 251 miles (405 km) to the SSW (193°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 748m (2,454ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 33kts (From the E at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the north quadrant at 22:42:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[cycloneye]

40kts at SFMR uncontaminated.

[cycloneye]

Uncontaminated 40kts at flight level-36kts at SFMR

000330 1623N 08104W 9237 00781 0107 +197 +111 108039 040 032 008 00
000430 1627N 08104W 9254 00764 0104 +207 +107 114030 031 036 010 00

[caneman]

Richard doesn't look too good tonight.