ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Nederlander]

models spread around the western gulf

[KWT]

Models all coming into broad agreement about the solution but there is clearly some uncertainty with exactly where it ends up however.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS FINALLY develops it

That particular run of the GFS would be plausible if the trough gets down close to the Gulf Coast mid next week. God lets hope not!!

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF

Notice both it and the GFDL are not bullish at all with intensity. Lets hope if these tracks pan out the intensity remains low end like this. This low end a storm might actually help to mix and thin out the oil.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BAMS

WHXX01 KWBC 250019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100625 0000 100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 81.6W 16.4N 83.2W 17.0N 84.5W 18.2N 86.1W
BAMD 16.0N 81.6W 15.9N 83.2W 15.9N 84.9W 16.0N 86.8W
BAMM 16.0N 81.6W 16.2N 83.2W 16.7N 84.6W 17.3N 86.2W
LBAR 16.0N 81.6W 16.1N 83.6W 16.8N 85.9W 17.6N 88.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100627 0000 100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 87.5W 22.1N 90.2W 24.4N 92.3W 25.7N 94.4W
BAMD 16.3N 88.7W 16.9N 91.8W 17.2N 94.5W 17.3N 98.1W
BAMM 18.0N 87.8W 19.9N 90.4W 21.4N 92.6W 22.4N 95.1W
LBAR 18.7N 90.5W 21.2N 94.1W 24.1N 96.1W 26.8N 97.8W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 75KTS 77KTS
DSHP 54KTS 30KTS 38KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Nederlander]

NOGAPS would be pretty nasty for areas along the coast of texas.. it stalls right along the coast for over 24 hours before moving back SW..

[thetruesms]

Notice both it and the GFDL are not bullish at all with intensity. Lets hope if these tracks pan out the intensity remains low end like this. This low end a storm might actually help to mix and thin out the oil.

If we're hoping along those lines, it'd be nicer for a track even more to the east, and get the entirety of the slick in the left front quadrant, rather than push what's up near Florida onto the coast.

[gatorcane]

Here is a snippet from NWS Miami that discusses the various models on 93L. Note they do mention the consistency of the GFS but when this was written the 18Z parallel GFS had not been run yet.

THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THAT IT DEVELOPS A STRONGER CIRCULATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE MOISTURE TO SHIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY. BUT CONSIDERING IT JUMPS PWAT VALUES BY NEARLY
ONE INCH IN A MATTER OF THREE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS A
LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DIGEST. THE GFS KEEPS ONLY A BROAD CIRCULATION
IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TRACKS THE WAVE WESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN BUT
STILL ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SHIFT NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE 00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER CIRCULATION THAN THE GFS BUT
STILL TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE YUCATAN AND IN TURN KEEPS THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS N FLA MUCH LIKE THE GFS DEPICTS. THE GFS HAS ALSO BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF
STRUGGLING WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[ROCK]

Thats curious...why would the Miami NWS consider the NAM for the tropics and the last 3 runs in a row for the EURO shows pretty much the same solution....so it is not consistant?

dualing NWS offices as the NWS here in Houston going with the EURO solution....

[Ivanhater]

NAM 84 hours

[JTE50]

HWRF

Notice both it and the GFDL are not bullish at all with intensity. Lets hope if these tracks pan out the intensity remains low end like this. This low end a storm might actually help to mix and thin out the oil.

I'm thinking the Cat 1 and up will do the mixing and "weathering" of the oil in the water. I may be wrong but I think the TD and TS strength will push the oil more intact.

[A1A]

I think an Hcane would be the real Dispersent Ops!

[paintplaye]

GFS stalls it right around Yucatan Peninsula:

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The new version of the GFS pretty stout


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_162l.gif

[South Texas Storms]

hmm the new gfs moves it very slowly towards tx/mexico. totally different than the 18z run...

[Wx_Warrior]

South of Brownsville....180h

[KFDM Meteorologist]

hmm the new gfs moves it very slowly towards tx/mexico. totally different than the 18z run...

it's starting to look like the EURO.

[ROCK]

South of Brownsville....180h

hmmm, I wonder if its because that trof doesnt dig as far south as the GFS has been touting for a few days now..... Maybe just maybe it has finally caught on to the EURO...

[ROCK]

hmm the new gfs moves it very slowly towards tx/mexico. totally different than the 18z run...

it's starting to look like the EURO.

yes it does...so much so I going to bed early tonight.....