ATL: GASTON - Models

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True, GFS looks more like EURO on it's 18Z run.

[Recurve]

Watching this closely now! Scary run for the Gulf states.

Um, Puerto Rico and Florida don't count? No props for taking the first blows?

[Vortex]

Given its current location and trajectory I think the chances of it going just north of the islands seems more plausible...The pattern certainly would suggest west into the gulf with the ridge moving in tandem west with gaston...It looks less likely well see a recurve east of 80w....The 12Z track of the GFS seems reasonable...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 050021
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0021 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100905 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  0000   100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  47.7W   17.3N  49.8W   18.0N  52.0W   18.4N  54.7W
BAMD    16.7N  47.7W   17.2N  49.7W   17.6N  52.0W   17.9N  54.5W
BAMM    16.7N  47.7W   16.9N  49.4W   17.0N  51.5W   16.9N  53.8W
LBAR    16.7N  47.7W   17.5N  50.0W   18.2N  52.6W   18.7N  55.5W
SHIP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  0000   100908  0000   100909  0000   100910  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  57.4W   19.9N  62.4W   20.8N  66.3W   21.5N  69.4W
BAMD    18.1N  57.2W   18.8N  62.1W   19.6N  65.3W   19.8N  66.9W
BAMM    16.9N  56.3W   17.3N  61.0W   18.2N  64.5W   18.9N  67.0W
LBAR    19.0N  58.3W   19.0N  63.8W   17.7N  68.6W   17.0N  72.4W
SHIP        47KTS          68KTS          84KTS          93KTS
DSHP        47KTS          68KTS          84KTS          93KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.7N LONCUR =  47.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  16.3N LONM12 =  45.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  15.4N LONM24 =  43.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[CYCLONE MIKE]

As of now sure looks like whatever becomes of this could very well be a major threat to Florida and somewhere along the northern gulf coast a few days later. I was skunked with the euro taking Fiona on the same track but this time almost all the models are pointing west. Again if this becomes something which we probably will not know for another 24- 48 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey Luis, have some of the models slipped south on that last run? I remember earlier in the day most of them appeared North of Puerto Rico?

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis, have some of the models slipped south on that last run? I remember earlier in the day most of them appeared North of Puerto Rico?

A handfull shifted south, one of them GFDL shifted south at 18z, but a number of them are just north of PR.

[Blown Away]

Hey Luis, have some of the models slipped south on that last run? I remember earlier in the day most of them appeared North of Puerto Rico?

A handfull shifted south, one of them GFDL shifted south at 18z, but a number of them are just north of PR.

Luis, face it this thing develops it's coming after you! What makes me nervous is when a storm moves just north of the big islands into the SE Bahamas, not a good position if you live in SFL!!

[Sanibel]

Don't trust GFDL with weak systems.

[StarmanHDB]

Hey kids! Be the first on your block to get the new-improved Gaston models....now with Hebert Boxes!

[cpdaman]

i think with the models being tightly clustered.....the DR... CUBA and even Jamaica are the main targets....PR as well but as a weaker system potentially......S FL really needs (or doesn') gaston to thread the needle to hit it as a strong cane. I wonder how many storms cuba has taken that saved florida....the DR as well....without these two islands FL i bet....would have been hit by at least 2X more majors.

[otowntiger]

Hey Luis, have some of the models slipped south on that last run? I remember earlier in the day most of them appeared North of Puerto Rico?

A handfull shifted south, one of them GFDL shifted south at 18z, but a number of them are just north of PR.

Luis, face it this thing develops it's coming after you! What makes me nervous is when a storm moves just north of the big islands into the SE Bahamas, not a good position if you live in SFL!!

Not just SFL, but how about Cfl and maybe the GoMex states too?

[Migle]

[/quote] Not just SFL, but how about Cfl and maybe the GoMex states too?[/quote]

Let's worry about the islands first before we think about the Gulf.

[Bailey1777]

if a high is supposed to be north of this and move in tandem with it wouldnt that drive it westward across the gom?

[ConvergenceZone]

if a high is supposed to be north of this and move in tandem with it wouldnt that drive it westward across the gom?

I think that the GOM is a very strong possibility if Gaston develops. If you look t the models towards the end. It has Gaston headed in that direction.

[BatzVI]

Can't say I like where the BAMM has it in 96 hours....18.2 64.5....hmmm, right over my house....and at 86kts....is this really possible the way the system looks right now?

[ROCK]

Can't say I like where the BAMM has it in 96 hours....18.2 64.5....hmmm, right over my house....and at 86kts....is this really possible the way the system looks right now?

once it gets out of this dry air watch out....just needs to pop convection over the center...vigorous LLC and warm waters ahead....

[abajan]

Can't say I like where the BAMM has it in 96 hours....18.2 64.5....hmmm, right over my house....and at 86kts....is this really possible the way the system looks right now?

Sometime back in the 1980’s, I think there was a system that went from a strong TW in the morning to a weak hurricane by the evening of the same day. So I guess it’s possible.

EDIT: I was able to dig up info on four quick developers:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[BatzVI]

Guess it's a good thing I only took a couple of shutters down..

[ericinmia]

Can't say I like where the BAMM has it in 96 hours....18.2 64.5....hmmm, right over my house....and at 86kts....is this really possible the way the system looks right now?

Sometime back in the 1980’s, I think there was a system that went from a strong TW in the morning to a weak hurricane by the evening of the same day. So I guess it’s possible.

(Not comparing... obiviously, but just saying things have happened before.)
(In the context of this strengthening before hitting the Leywards and other islands.)


August 29th, Weak Tropical Storm
September 1st, Weak Hurricane
September 2nd, "Rapid Intensification" 160mph+ 892mb