ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Yeah its certainly not picking up much latitude, still heading pretty much 280 as it has been doing all day, though with the East shear occuring now looks like the convection may even be slightly moving south of west....but thats not occuring for sure.

Yeah you're right, but let's wait a bit KWT.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ROCK]

west is right as it should be..this is current.....MW had it right earlier today..its embedded in the easterlies and I think WXMN57 makes a good point...it might not have an LLC or a very weak one..


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N
42.5W OR LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W
AND 46W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA

[Gustywind]

[Vortmax1]

It's a weak LLC I'm sure so it won't be much of a surprise to see many center relocations which will likely keep it heading more North than West from what I am seeing.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, judging by that Sat pic, if that little convective blob dissipates, there won't be much left of it...

[hurricaneCW]

Once it nears the TUTT, couldn't it enhance convection. I know they are known to do that, and the TUTT could serve as both a positive and a negative to the system if the shear isn't too powerful.

[supercane]

Note that 00Z best track position 0.3N from SSD's. From best track (also posted by cycloneeye)

AL, 04, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 420W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,
AL, 04, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 134N, 441W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

Bearing: 283 at 21 kt

[Dean4Storms]

I think the trend is more westward from what we are seeing, this has to be due to the TD being kept in check convection wise from the dry air to its north and the fast forward speed which is indicative of a strong ridge!!!! I just don't see it gaining the latitude that for the past several runs all the models have been latched onto.

I would stay aware of this if I was in the Lesser Antilles and even the Windwards!!

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will pass south of the 15N-50W benchmark for the NE Caribbean.

[hurricaneCW]

So, no Fish? A lot of people thought this storm would definitely fish, but now it may be just the opposite.

[redfish1]

does anyone think this will enter the GOM??

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR



TD#4 CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING TD#4
REMAINS A CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION IT SHOULD PASS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF PR EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS SMALL
AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. GIVEN ITS FAST MOTION IT COULD ALSO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND SVRL RELIABLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TD#4
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. IN THAT CASE...IT WOULD BE STEERED BY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIKELY TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. GIVEN
THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SPED UP ASSOCIATED WX
BRINGING SCT SHRAS TO COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

[gatorcane]

this thing rmeinds me alot of Bonnie in appearance doesn't it? What's up with the hostile conditions this year? Granted its only Aug. 2...

These tropical sytems are no match for what is out there right now eating them alive.

[Gustywind]

I think the trend is more westward from what we are seeing, this has to be due to the TD being kept in check convection wise from the dry air to its north and the fast forward speed which is indicative of a strong ridge!!!! I just don't see it gaining the latitude that for the past several runs all the models have been latched onto.

I would stay aware of this if I was in the Lesser Antilles and even the Windwards!!

Thanks for this advice that's why she should continue to monitor much more than closely TD4!

[ozonepete]

I think everyone should remember what wxman57 said about not looking at the blob of convection to determine the movement. The center of circulation still looks like it's moving west-northwest as far as I can tell. Just watch the RGB or visible loops. And the nose (forward edge) of that big ridge that it's riding under is moving forward even faster and will soon merge into the overall Bermuda high, and then this low may very well slow down a little. So I don't see anything wrong with the NHC forecast right now.

[hurricaneCW]

this thing rmeinds me alot of Bonnie in appearance doesn't it? What's up with the hostile conditions this year? Granted its only Aug. 2...

These tropical sytems are no match for what is out there right now eating them alive.

It's very hostile, reminds me of 2006. Maybe no major hurricanes this year?

[Vortmax1]

These tropical sytems are no match for what is out there right now eating them alive.

I've been tickled regularly this season seeing what has been happening Gatorcane.
It's the La Nina effect I think which causes more TUTT's as well as storm systems.
Tracking the TUTT's is a full time job this season!

[cycloneye]

this thing rmeinds me alot of Bonnie in appearance doesn't it? What's up with the hostile conditions this year? Granted its only Aug. 2...

These tropical sytems are no match for what is out there right now eating them alive.

It's very hostile, reminds me of 2006. Maybe no major hurricanes this year?

Is La Nina season. But lets discuss that on the Talking Tropics forum.