ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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cycloneye
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#761 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:04 pm

HurricaneStriker wrote:I think Tomas will be the hurricane that gets 2010 to the hyperactive point in Accumulated Cyclone Energy - 153.

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With the 5 PM advisory,the Atlantic has reached 150 ACE units.
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#762 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:05 pm

Tomas looks awesome...in a way.

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#763 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:09 pm

I feel bad for those on St. Lucia. The brunt is on them right now. Wish everyone good luck there and have a rough, yet safe evening.

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#764 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:13 pm

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#765 Postby jabber » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:18 pm

I have read that most of the forest has been cut for fuel and other immediate uses. Place is in bad shape and not getting better.

snowcane180 wrote:why is most of haiti deforested? any reasons?
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#766 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:18 pm

St. Lucia is just coming out of the NE eyewall right now, probably have sustained winds pretty close to or at hurricane force, and gusts well into category-1 strength.

I'm still amazed at this systems outflow, esp on the eastern side thanks to some light westerly shear.
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#767 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:22 pm

I can agree with you KWT. I haven't seen an outflow that organized from a minimal category 1 in a while, or maybe Alex had some of that beauty...
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#768 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:30 pm

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#769 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:32 pm

Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia, hasn't reported the weather conditions since noon, local time.
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#770 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:34 pm

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#771 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:35 pm

Inner core isn't as organised as it could be looking at that microwave imagery though there has been a decent convective burst since then.

The more I look at this and the track some models are suggesting the more I am getting reminded of Hazel, at least it gets north of the Caribbean...
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#772 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:45 pm

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Re:

#773 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia, hasn't reported the weather conditions since noon, local time.
That may be due to the fact that Hewanorra has been closed because of flooding, according to the latest public advisory from the NHC. Then again, Arnos Vale in St. Vincent hasn’t made any reports since 10:00 a.m. I guess they’re closed too.
Last edited by abajan on Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:53 pm

A lot have pointed out the great outflow. Now it's really gaining great symmetry and banding with a really circular CDO as well. And with the nocturnal convection maximum coming, this could really ramp up tonight.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby Crackbone » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:54 pm

Anyone else feel that the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is on the conservative side?
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:56 pm

Crackbone wrote:Anyone else feel that the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is on the conservative side?


It's normal, they tend to be conservative.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby HurricaneStriker » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:58 pm

Crackbone wrote:Anyone else feel that the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is on the conservative side?


Maybe, but some other models are really conservative and keep Tomas a minimal cat 1. But you never know, Tomas could undergo rapid deepening and hit major by tomorrow.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby Crackbone » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:59 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Crackbone wrote:Anyone else feel that the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is on the conservative side?


It's normal, they tend to be conservative.


Aye, this I know. But they don't have this thing ramping up to a major until 4 days out, I'm thinking, looking at the conditions, this could get quite a bit stronger. Just a hunch.
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#779 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:07 pm

should begin to strengthen at a good clip tonight..CDO beginning to take shape...
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#780 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:12 pm

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