ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1568
Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:45 GMT le 06 août 2010

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.

[KWT]

Still think this will be the D storm, looks like it could be sheared though around 72-96hrs unless it recurves early enough to avoid any major shear from the TUTT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 700
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[chzzdekr81]

Stays at 40...

[KWT]

Not really any rush in this part of the basin, probably would be a little higher if this was in the Gulf right now, I'd imagine probably a code Red knowing the way the NHC operates...but alas no problem to hold back!

[HURAKAN]

Remember that it was Avila the one that did the TWO ... If it had been Stewart, it may at 50-60% now

[KWT]

I'm quite curious for what reason the GFS weakens the system in about 48-72hrs, not sure I see what it could be just yet out there.

I fully expect to see this one slowly get going, Dmax will probably push this to code Red tomorrow IMO

[Nimbus]

Its quite far north so the models will probably have it track as a fish. Could be our first major storm though so lets hope it does.

[KWT]

Oh yeah its pretty much a certainty this one recurves given its position and also given the fact the upper trough is swinging by further north in the N.Atlantic.

Would be nice to see this one strengthen quite alot given we know for nearly certain this one is going to recurve before land...the only small risk is if the system tracks west of the forecast and the recurve isn't strong, the Bermuda isn't totally out of the question, but I find that unlikely to be honest.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W
7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

GARCIA

[KWT]

That convection is developing in the zone the models have been trying to latch onto, looks like its seperated from the ITCZ totally now.

[BigA]

Looks solid, I'd imagine it has pretty good odds to develop. The area behind it which looked impressive yesterday is "unpoofing" as well.

[cycloneye]

It continues to organize slowly.

[Dean4Storms]

Does anyone have a SST map for that area it is headed into?

[HURAKAN]

for some reason, the best track hasn't been updated

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have a SST map for that area it is headed into?

Heading to warmer waters.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

Does anyone have a SST map for that area it is headed into?

Heading to warmer waters.

Thanks Cycloneye! Yep, I imagine with it borderline right now the depth of the warmer waters might play a role in a slower development.

[supercane]

Does anyone have a SST map for that area it is headed into?

Map made in UW-CIMSS TCTrak shows 93L straddling 27C isotherm. Anticyclone aloft, shear farther north.