ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[bahamaswx]

Looks like it'll flare up into a CDO type burst.

[Aquawind]

around 17N 80W looking pretty interesting right now..deep convection still displaced..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[wx247]

I am not sure we will see a jump to 50% on the 2 AM outlook. I think we may be getting just a tad over eager in anticipation now that we have some thunderstorms that have held together longer than 45 minutes in one location. I could see the NHC raising to 40%. I only see 50% from the NHC if they really think that it is getting its act together quickly. Right now... I don't anticipate that threshold being reached within another hour. It could by morning if the organization continues.

Just my unofficial $.04 worth (adjusted for inflation).

[brunota2003]

or it could just be dmax and later tonight it'll fall apart again...regardless of whether the system is in better shape or not. give it another 6 to 12 hours and if it is still there, THEN we have something. I think the NHC will bump to 40%, but am thinking that 50% or higher is a little too high at the moment.

[Weatherfreak000]

Every frame that passes looks better and better.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't know...maybe my tired eyes are playing tricks on me but it seems like the engine is starting to fire to the Southeast of Jamaica.

SFT

[Aquawind]

I agree 40% more likely.. might need some convection overhead..lol But I think come 8am we might see red if convection does fire further W...

[AJC3]

Check this out west winds have been reported for a while now. http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

Don't put much into this. Those west winds are very light (310/02 knots at MKJP at 04Z) and most likely a result of local orographic (terrain) or precipitation effects. To wit, Montego Bay on the north side of the islands continues to report east winds, as does a ship to the north of there.

[Cdeck81]

or it could just be dmax and later tonight it'll fall apart again...regardless of whether the system is in better shape or not. give it another 6 to 12 hours and if it is still there, THEN we have something. I think the NHC will bump to 40%, but am thinking that 50% or higher is a little too high at the moment.

You're right, but remember yesterday or the day before when NHC bumped it up to 50% out of no where?

[brunota2003]

Yes I do remember, but I think they'll be a little more cautious this time around and make the system prove it is worth that 50%.

[tailgater]

A little more vorticity

[hurricanejunkie]

I really don't want a strong TS or Cat. 1-2, or for that matter 3, hurricane in the GOM especially now with the amount of unweathered oil in the Gulf as well as all the Corexit 9500 dispersant that BP has been using! The pics were so sad to look at on Pensacola Beach today and especially the dolphin that was recovered from the gulf that unfortunately died during transport to a facility in Panama City Beach. I frequently walk on Johnson's Beach with a friend and I am so saddened to see that we are getting more than just a few tar balls now and potentially a lot more of the oil mess! This system seems to be getting better organized and I just don't want to see it go through any rapid intensification once it enters into the gulf with SST's in the mid-to-upper 80's.

[Sanibel]

Slightly better organization. More compact. Still offset and thinly convected.

[Cdeck81]

I really don't want a strong TS or Cat. 1-2, or for that matter 3, hurricane in the GOM especially now with the amount of unweathered oil in the Gulf as well as all the Corexit 9500 dispersant that BP has been using! The pics were so sad to look at on Pensacola Beach today and especially the dolphin that was recovered from the gulf that unfortunately died during transport to a facility in Panama City Beach. I frequently walk on Johnson's Beach with a friend and I am so saddened to see that we are getting more than just a few tar balls now and potentially a lot more of the oil mess! This system seems to be getting better organized and I just don't want to see it go through any rapid intensification once it enters into the gulf with SST's in the mid-to-upper 80's.

I know, it's really sad. Welcome to Storm2k!

[Brent]

I agree 40% more likely.. might need some convection overhead..lol But I think come 8am we might see red if convection does fire further W...

I agree, I don't see a dramatic change considering this flareup A. Just started and B. It's the middle of the night.

[Ivanhater]

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Aquawind]

Right on schedule.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like it'll flare up into a CDO type burst.

Nevermind. This burst won't do it.

[Cdeck81]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

You beat me again Brent! LOL.