ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

[somethingfunny]

Welcome Colin!

http://blogs.e-rockford.com/applesauce/ ... -colin.jpg

[WeatherGuesser]

Still showing it as staying offshore and not making H1 though, right?

[KWT]

Wll thats another name out of the way I suppose, not going to do anything more then what Bonnie did I suspect mind you, conditions around it really are quite poor...

[TheEuropean]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't think that conditions are so poor for Colin. Shear is not the big problem at this time, it would be a problem in a few days from now. I think that Colin may get a bit stronger and perhaps become a hurricane by wednesday or early thursday. And Colin may track a little more to the west having some influence on the islands, although its a small storm.

[KWT]

I'd be amazed if it reaches hurricane status, its running right towards dry air/SAL combo, thats not the combo I'd expect to see a hurricane develop it...and now its having to fight of the dry air right st its doorstep so to speak...

Then again some of the models do seem quite keen on strengthening still.

[mufasa157]

San Juan NWS forecast discussion:

ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL TRACK AT THIS
POINT MOISTURE FROM COLIN BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY. BETTER SHOWERS RETURN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS EXTENDING AT LEAST UP THROUGH 700
MB ENTERS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

[KWT]

Current track is looking pretty decent, motion seems to me to be roughly WNW overnight so whilst it'll likely come close enough to the Islands to need watching, Colin current track over the next 48hrs should be fairly solid IMO....but we do need to watch further downstream because whilst the models tear this one apart if it doesn't lift up as quickly to the north then you neve quite know...

[StormTracker]

A compact tropical storm is born!

[StormTracker]

I'd be amazed if it reaches hurricane status, its running right towards dry air/SAL combo, thats not the combo I'd expect to see a hurricane develop it...and now its having to fight of the dry air right st its doorstep so to speak...

Then again some of the models do seem quite keen on strengthening still.

Yeah KWT, looks like Colin will be inhaling lots of dust!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20100803.0945.msg2.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[KWT]

Still going but you can see it is gaining latitude slowly, this system is gaining latitude through its plusing, so whilst its convectivly stable, when it gains new convection it develops to the WNW of the last one, that seems to be how this one has worked out.

I'm not really that impressed with the system though to be honest!

[ronjon]

I agree with the European MET - conditions are not that bad for development. The dry air is to the west - all along the storm has been riding a moisture surge (the lead edge can be seen on SAT extending to the NW of the storm). A small anticyclone may build over the storm the next 24 hrs. Shear over the next few days will not be a problem. The biggest issue I see is the forward speed - perhaps it'll slow down a few mph and gain some traction.

[KWT]

The flow is quite quick, I'm willing to bet there is some mid level easterly shear on it still, both of those things are suggestive of being close to the SAL outbreak which is occuring to the north.

Conditions IMO are marginal for strengthening, but a big convective burst that holds could get this upto 50kts or so...but I'd be somewhat surprised to see it go beyond that...

What I will say is the GFS doesn't weaken it on its last run and the ECM doesn't seem to really weaken it either, so it may not weaken as much as was through before.

Still needs close watching

[Cryomaniac]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't think that conditions are so poor for Colin. Shear is not the big problem at this time, it would be a problem in a few days from now. I think that Colin may get a bit stronger and perhaps become a hurricane by wednesday or early thursday. And Colin may track a little more to the west having some influence on the islands, although its a small storm.

You're a pro met, I'm not sure you need the disclaimer. I on the other hand do:

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and as such isn't based on meteorological reasoning. It should not be used for any purpose

I think it's possible that Colin becomes a hurricane, probably only briefly though. As long as it stays left of the forecast there's always the risk of an impact on the islands, and obviously that risk only increases the longer that trend continues.

[Gustywind]

San Juan NWS forecast discussion:

ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL TRACK AT THIS
POINT MOISTURE FROM COLIN BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY. BETTER SHOWERS RETURN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS EXTENDING AT LEAST UP THROUGH 700
MB ENTERS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

Near Guadeloupe? Hey hey hey Cycloneye that's very bad news for the Leewards especially the butterfly island if this trend is confirmed. Be on your guard too. Let's continue to monitor very
carefully what many posters were calling FISH Sunday!

[Blown Away]

First look this morning and I see more convection what is the coordinates of the LLC?

[KWT]

Worth noting the GFS has nailed the track so far, beating the NHC/Conensus model so with Colin, so providing that stays the same the islands should be far enough away not to worry about Colin unless it relaly explodes, which is pretty unlikely in this set-up.

[cycloneye]

Near Guadeloupe? Hey hey hey Cycloneye that's very bad news for the Leewards especially the butterfly island if this trend is confirmed. Be on your guard too. Let's continue to monitor very
carefully

Definitly, I am watching from here as you never know what may occur with the track as the tropics many times are full of surprises.

[Gustywind]

Latest