ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[curtadams]

Rills are appearing on the eastern side of the CDO so the outflow is starting to go in that direction as well. On IR2 the LLC appears to be going further under the CDO although with the awful color scheme on the floater IR2 it's hard to be sure.

[Sanibel]

Amazing how once you break the threshold of negative conditions how the storm goes into high gear. Big black IR burst now.

[TwisterFanatic]

[WeatherGuesser]

If I didn't know better, I'd say I saw an eye at 38/14 in that 06:45 Rainbow IR

[WeatherGuesser]

[Normandy]

Would love to hear a promet explain that Microwave image....It seems to show the LLC displaced east of a eye-like feature.

[WeatherGuesser]

Crap. That's the problem with hotlinking images. They get updated and the comments might not be relevant anymore. The eye I referred to above is gone in the 7:45 IR Rainbow image. Is there an archive of them somewhere?

The image Normandy is referring to is from NRL and labeled as follows in case it gets updated before someone can look at it:

08/23/10 0000Z 06L Danielle
08/23/10 0351Z Aqua-1 36V
08/23/10 0345Z GOES-13 IR

[WeatherGuesser]

Winds up to 60MPH at the 5AM

[cwachal]

first vis

[jconsor]

I would put money on the 9z NHC position being about 50 miles too far north or northeast. We'll see very shortly when the first few visible images become available. Even if the LLC is still on the eastern edge of the convection, given the improving organization and anticyclone developing over the system, the LLC will most likely relocate very soon closer to the MLC which is now at about 14.2N 38W.

If you do about a 20 frame storm-centered loop, *without color enhancement*, from this site you can see the MLC very clearly, and right over the MLC there is a warm spot or possible eye visible:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Notice how the bulge in convection on the east side of the storm disappears between 4 and 6z. That is a clear sign that the LLC is relocating closer to the center of the deep convection.

[abajan]

Crap. That's the problem with hotlinking images. They get updated and the comments might not be relevant anymore. The eye I referred to above is gone in the 7:45 IR Rainbow image...

That’s why it was suggested in this thread that ImageShack or some similar facility be used when posting images.

[KWT]

Well this is looking good now, probably will be a hurricane today looking at how its developing right now!

[WeatherGuesser]

No eye in the 0915Z visible, but it is taking a classic shape overall.

[KWT]

Yeah it does have a classic look now, wouldn't be all that surprising to see it develop a strong inner core soon.

[Nimbus]

The LLC looks like it is in the NE quadrant of the convection still fairly small. The official track is probably only 20 miles north now but the heading appears to be less than 300 degrees over 6 frames or so. Check it again in 6 hours..

[wxman57]

Would love to hear a promet explain that Microwave image....It seems to show the LLC displaced east of a eye-like feature.

Yes, it does, because that blue spot appears to be a single very cold cloud top located SW of the center and not an eye.

[KWT]

The LLC looks like it is in the NE quadrant of the convection still fairly small. The official track is probably only 20 miles north now but the heading appears to be less than 300 degrees over 6 frames or so. Check it again in 6 hours..

Yeah its just wobbling along a mean track at the moment, no big deal, its pretty much tracking close to the NHC forecast points at the moment and IMO the track looks pretty solid though we may see more northwards motion in thier forecasts soon.

[AdamFirst]

Danielle's a big one. I know it's supposed to miss the leewards but looking at it on the infrared satellite it looks intimidating even when its still a thousand miles away from them.

[I Scream Cone]

Looks as though Danielle's center is well to the SW of the forecast points. It is possible that the center relocated toward the deepest convection. I presume this is going to have implications down the road, especially if Danielle misses the first trough.

[WeatherGuesser]

Would love to hear a promet explain that Microwave image....It seems to show the LLC displaced east of a eye-like feature.

Yes, it does, because that blue spot appears to be a single very cold cloud top located SW of the center and not an eye.

Except that the blue spot is almost dead on where I thought an eye showed on the Rainbow image. There was a pure white spot with a black void when I made that comment.