ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Aquawind]

Does anyone here happen to know why Tomas has such a long...tail?

Big storm and thus big moisture feed...alot of divergence to the east from the looks of the WV loop. The prefrontal trough mentioned in the TWD is north but, it almost looks like one atm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Vortmax1]

Does anyone here happen to know why Tomas has such a long...tail?

Tomas is still not well stacked.

[snowcane180]

I dont think igor had a big tail

[abajan]

We’re still getting TS force gusts in Barbados:

[GCANE]

The eyewall is really beginning to take shape.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

It looks like the deep MCS to the east, that was firing from shear, is now dissipating.

That in turn will allow the anti-cyclone, that was displaced to the the SE, to move more toward the LLC.

This will cause the tropopause height over the LLC to increase and as a result the PV column will raise accordingly.

A stretching PV column results in a faster spinning TC.

[cycloneye]

The important paragraph of the 11 PM discussion about the longer range.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS MUCH GREATER SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL SUPPORT A STRONGER MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOVE TOMAS ON A WESTWARD OR
JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION ON DAYS 2-4. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
SHOW TOMAS MOVING WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY DAY 5...AND THE HWRF
SHOWS THE CYCLONE STALLING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
LATTER THREE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN BATCH
OF MODELS.

[cycloneye]

The turn at the end of forecast period is more pronnounced than before.

[gatorcane]

Nhc not biting on the sharp curve to the north....no mention of that probably out of the respect of the ecmwf

[Vortmax1]

Nhc not biting on the sharp curve to the north....no mention of that probably out of the respect of the ecmwf

So...maybe the ECM is not the outlier?


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[ozonepete]

The eyewall is really beginning to take shape.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

It looks like the deep MCS to the east, that was firing from shear, is now dissipating.

That in turn will allow the anti-cyclone, that was displaced to the the SE, to move more toward the LLC.

This will cause the tropopause height over the LLC to increase and as a result the PV column will raise accordingly.

A stretching PV column results in a faster spinning TC.

You have it just right. The MCS to the east (the big convective blow-up) will dissipate now. It is the CDO WEST of the islands that is the area to watch. As the eastern convective area dies down the CDO over the center will really blow up.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Which is the best model for Global and initializing the trough next week? Not the tropics.

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



It's getting hard to believe that this supposed trough is going to be strong enough to yank this storm out of the Caribbean!

Way too early in the season for this to happen.
No...this boy will get cut off and drift into Central America!

[latitude_20]

Lit up like a Christmas tree...

[GCANE]

The eyewall is really beginning to take shape.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

It looks like the deep MCS to the east, that was firing from shear, is now dissipating.

That in turn will allow the anti-cyclone, that was displaced to the the SE, to move more toward the LLC.

This will cause the tropopause height over the LLC to increase and as a result the PV column will raise accordingly.

A stretching PV column results in a faster spinning TC.

You have it just right. The MCS to the east (the big convective blow-up) will dissipate now. It is the CDO WEST of the islands that is the area to watch. As the eastern convective area dies down the CDO over the center will really blow up.

The CDO west of the islands looks to have high-rain rate convection beginning to fire in it.

Perhaps its the eyewall itself.

[hurricaneCW]

Tomas is so unusual looking. You have what looks to be the main core of the system, and then there's this huge tail to the west of it. There's definitely some stacking issues going on that could take a couple of days to work out.

[Vortmax1]

[wxman57]

Nhc not biting on the sharp curve to the north....no mention of that probably out of the respect of the ecmwf

They will turn it sharply right tomorrow. The turn occurs just at the 5 day point from today. Looks destined for Haiti or the DR, then may merge with the big storm over New England next weekend.

[Vortmax1]

They will turn it sharply right tomorrow.

Probably not!
Sorry WX57!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most likely the ECM cut-off situation.

[TheDreamTraveler]

They will turn it sharply right tomorrow.

Probably not!
Sorry WX57!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most likely the ECM cut-off situation.

What's your reasoning for that?

[Vortmax1]

What's your reasoning for that?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My reasoning is that it is too early in the season for a super strong front like this to happen!

It is too early and it won't happen.
The ECMWF is right!