ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest image out. You can see the convection is filling in and consolidating. This is got to be on the fast track to getting together. I'd say through out the GFS solution.

[HURAKAN]

popping ... good night!

[Weatherfreak000]

popping ... good night!

The difference in organization is astonishing considering how long we have been watching this.

[Brent]

popping ... good night!

The difference in organization is astonishing considering how long we have been watching this.

It really is. Couldn't even get cold tops anywhere the past 2 days and now they're everywhere. This is beginning to develop IMO.

[southerngale]

I've seen several posts bashing private weather organizations and forecasters. This is not allowed on Storm2k.

From the rules in the Storm2k Rules & Announcements Forum:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[southerngale]

Accuwx's take

"THE SKY IS FALLING!"
Was it Chicken Little or Joe Bastardi who SCREAMED that?

Potential Tropical Trouble and Development Possible Late Week is a far cry from "THE SKY IS FALLING!"

[Weatherfreak000]

Rainbow longview tonight. Just recently revised. Beautiful look to it.

[ROCK]

thank goodness it wasnt me who said anything critical....

[Aquawind]

AL, 93, 2010062406, , BEST, 0, 166N, 804W, 25, 1009, WV, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[somethingfunny]

93L really seems to be getting its' act together, but it's going to be lopsided as all getout if that really is the LLC forming SW of Jamaica. It will take some time for it to consolidate all that convection into a cohesive structure. It's also running out of time.

By Friday night it's going to be over the Yucatan, and after that it needs some more time to reorganize over water...so if 93L does not get itself classified and begin strengthening (and lifting northward) by this time tomorrow night, then I don't think we'll see much of this system until it's in the west-central Gulf. By that point everything looks good for rapid intensification so I still think that a situation like Bret in 2005 is the weakest possibility we're facing, but more likely it's going to be like Hurricane Dolly in 2008 - a storm which took a long time to get organized, but intensified quickly up until landfall once it became organized enough.

With every hour that passes without 93L becoming classified, the chances of a major hurricane in the northern Gulf become more and more slim.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Going to have to get going pretty soon, its not got an awful lot longer over water, probably got another 36-48hrs before it hits land. Of course the land interaction it'll have as it comes towards landfall may well do the job to get TD1.

Also needs to be watched in the BoC though it may not have long there, perhaps just 24-36hrs...I do not believe the GFDL/HWRF idea that it lifts out because its showed little signs of that thus far...though the ECM maybe too far south.

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Doesn't look good.

What's interesting is the tops seem to be blown off to the west but just north of the assumed LLC the tops are blown off to the east. I'm not so sure conditions are as favorable as advertised. June's a tough month to get anything started.

[KWT]

Indeed tolakram, I think there is some problems aloft which is probably why the GFS was not at all keen on this system...

For example there is shear aloft still, and upper divergence is still to the east which isn't really that condusive for development, will probably have to wait for the aid of the land to stand a shot, indeed may need to wait till the other side to develop...

[jlauderdal]

Latest image out. You can see the convection is filling in and consolidating. This is got to be on the fast track to getting together. I'd say through out the GFS solution.

sorry. no fast track, slow and steady if anything the next 3 days.

[KWT]

Oh yeah this system isn't going to rush into development, I'm starting to think its not going to have enough time to do it, but then again as Dolly proved you can get a strong system on the other side of the Yucatan.

[Nimbus]

There is some mid level turning evident but there must be some dry air in the area. Once this gets west of Jamaica and there is no land interaction it should go.

[KWT]

I think the main problem is Nimbus the upper divergence is shunted to the east of the wave whilst there is actually some upper convergence to the west which is really hurting this system I think in terms of its chances.

[ronjon]

I see some cyclonic turning near 17N-76W this morning - probably at the mid-levels.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[brunota2003]

On the plus side, the storms are now more concentrated...on the negative side, they are not living very long, nor are they really deep.

[rockyman]

This 5-day 850-vorticity loop shows that the spinning area to the east of Jamaica actually came from the disturbance that was over the far eastern Caribbean 48 hours ago...while the spinning west of Jamaica is our original 93L

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 4java.html