ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I think it's possible TD5 expanded and created inflow that then drew in dry air that choked itself off. I'm not sure because the Yucatan disturbance also had a loss of convection too.

[ROCK]

goes to show what an ULL can do when so close to a developing system. We have see that a lot this year....also the lack of a strong LLC to tap the LC is telling. Hottest part of the basin (or close to it) and nothing. MLC looks detached with no convection bursting at this hour....maybe when the sun rises but its running out of real estate. It is a mess....

where is 95L?

[Stormcenter]

Yes there's shear and dry air to deal with for TD 5 but it's August and it's in the hot GOM so it's far from dead IMO.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

goes to show what an ULL can do when so close to a developing system. We have see that a lot this year....also the lack of a strong LLC to tap the LC is telling. Hottest part of the basin (or close to it) and nothing. MLC looks detached with no convection bursting at this hour....maybe when the sun rises but its running out of real estate. It is a mess....

where is 95L?

[AJC3]

I think it's possible TD5 expanded and created inflow that then drew in dry air that choked itself off. I'm not sure because the Yucatan disturbance also had a loss of convection too.

Based upon some of the high temp-dew point spreads I saw in the HDOBs, I think the most likely culprit is simply the dry air that was associated with the mid level low which overtook the system mixing down into the convective updrafts, effectively "drying out" the system last evening. I suspect this may be a temporary occurrence, and that we'll see some attempt at a comeback later tonight into Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

ok well i have been gone for only a few hours and first look is pretty sad..

[ROCK]

ok well i have been gone for only a few hours and first look is pretty sad..

sad is an understatement.... the NAM might be on to something...

[Aric Dunn]

who knows what happened to the convergence from earlier.. this should be nothing more than weak low pressure area.. no signs of any real organization anymore.. maybe someone should turn on their sprinklers because you will get more rain that way..lol

[Aric Dunn]

to think I was all prepared to go chasing.. maybe a few more glasses of wine will make it look better.. lol

[Ikester]

Wow, what a sad day to be a weatherman. LOL. This thing makes me wanna join Aric and get wasted...assuming that's what your intentions are, Aric.

[ColinDelia]

Looks like the ULL is moving right through it on its way to the sw gulf as forecast.
(on my iPad so no flash but that's what it looks like from stills).

Well see if it starts to look better once the ULL clears the area. I don't think this would be upgraded to a TD if the decision were being made anew right now.

[ColinDelia]

to think I was all prepared to go chasing.. maybe a few more glasses of wine will make it look better.. lol

Well it is "closing time"

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, what a sad day to be a weatherman. LOL. This thing makes me wanna join Aric and get wasted...assuming that's what your intentions are, Aric.

well it for sure makes me want to hit myself after tracking this thing all day only to look at it now and wonder why i wasted my time... getting wasted no.. but enjoying a few good drinks yes.. Cheers !!!

[Ikester]

to think I was all prepared to go chasing.. maybe a few more glasses of wine will make it look better.. lol

Well it is "closing time"

Not in Central, Mountain and Pacific time!

[Aric Dunn]

its kind of ironic that the system with very little dry air and in a relatively more condusive environment compared to the other is sad.. and the one in the middle of a dry air slot and shear is doing better... weeeee go 93L !!! lol ..

[Ikester]

I guess size does matter....the circulation is big and will take longer to consolidate..

[ColinDelia]

to think I was all prepared to go chasing.. maybe a few more glasses of wine will make it look better.. lol

Well it is "closing time"

Not in Central, Mountain and Pacific time!

I think this storm had too much to drink already. She can't
Even remember her name

[ravyrn]

I think this is going to cap off at 40mph. All it needs is a little pressure drop and 5mph and there we go but thats all TD 2 needed...

Let's hope this stays on the NHC track. Slightly west or east of that track will give TD5 some extra time over water and if it does begin to get its act together I would guess it would most likely be around the time its making landfall. And I find a 40mph cap to be slightly conservative.

[xironman]

All this thing has had its convection enhanced by the ULL that was basically sitting on top of it giving divergent flow, hence the sub-tropical feel to it. Now that ULL has exited stage left and it is going to need to transition to a more pure TC scenerio, it may not make it. But with the ULL gone from the picture it would seem like a good environment for the transition to happen, Bonnie never had an environment like this one is going to get.

[ColinDelia]

The dry air associated with the ULL moved through the Northern half of the system.

The ULL is now off the coast of SE LA and moving west.

There is also some dry air pushing through Northern Florida that is almost to the NE gulf.

North of the line where the dry air is the shear is 20 knots or higher. That line of 20knots + shear currently extends into the extreme Northern Gulf From a little South of Mobile straight east cutting across Florida to Cape Canaveral
(Note: Not saying anything about where it is going . Just where it is)

[AJC3]

I had to split a bunch of posts made witin the last hour and change. Let's not let things go in that direction again. It's simple...if you have a problem with a particular member or members, either take it to PM, or notify a moderator. The board staff shouldn't have to keep repeating this warning.