ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[wxman57]

I would put money on the 9z NHC position being about 50 miles too far north or northeast. We'll see very shortly when the first few visible images become available. Even if the LLC is still on the eastern edge of the convection, given the improving organization and anticyclone developing over the system, the LLC will most likely relocate very soon closer to the MLC which is now at about 14.2N 38W.

Yeah...its off. When they readjust the center at 11am...it will look as if it went wsw...but its a correction. Their placement is too far north and way too far east.

I hadn't looked at the NHC's last advisory yet when I estimated a center near 14.6N/39.4W or so. It shows up well on the microwave imagery. Looks like an eye starting to form:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Yeah Microwave imagery that Hurakan has just put up sure looks like its around 14.5N, starting to develop a weak eye as well there as you'd expect with a strengthening storm.

[pepeavilenho]

This is te ''latestest''



Can you see something.....

[WeatherGuesser]

14.5 would put it slightly north. It was below 14 earlier overnight.

[cycloneye]

14.5 would put it slightly north. It was below 14 earlier overnight.

The 5 AM position by NHC was=14.8N 37.1W

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 387W, 50, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Nimbus]

Well if Danielle tracks through 40W 15N then the models were off over the last 12 hour period which may not mean much but worth noting. Can't continue at 285 all the way west.

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak

23/1145 UTC 14.7N 37.8W T3.0/3.5 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

That position is different from the 12z best track.

[KWT]

14.8N looks too far north looking at the microwave imagery, 14.5N as wxman57 said looks like a good starting point for this one.

[Blown Away]

Looking good, not sure on the NHC track if Danielle will achieve major status.

[HURAKAN]

23/1145 UTC 14.7N 38.5W T3.5/3.5 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

55 knots

[dixiebreeze]

This looks more westerly, but IR can be deceiving:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-jsl.html

[canes04]

Eye developing and moving slighty north of due west.

call me crazy, but she may slow down or stall in 3 to 4 days and miss the weakness.
I'm not -removed- but the building high may trap her and send it west.

Lets see how it plays out in the coming days.

[KWT]

Looking good, not sure on the NHC track if Danielle will achieve major status.

Possibly it might not but I think odds are more in its favour of making mjor hurricane status then not still IMO, conditions look good aloft and once this develops an inner core it'll probably race through category-1 pretty rapidly IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[wxman57]

McIDAS shot I just made has the center closer to 14.9N/39.5W at 1315Z.

[KWT]

Thats probably what the NHC is focusing on Wcman57 because they was at 14.8N a couple of hours ago.

Now we have no worries with a threat, lets just enjoy a big fish system!

Hurakan, wrapping up quite nicely there!

[srainhoutx]

Thats probably what the NHC is focusing on Wcman57 because they was at 14.8N a couple of hours ago.

Now we have no worries with a threat, lets just enjoy a big fish system!

Hurakan, wrapping up quite nicely there!

Probably just a bit too soon to be making a blanket statement like that KWT.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Looks like an upper low 'invader' has been fired from the north to intercept Danielle.

Of course this could aid in intensification as well.