ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Aquawind]

Thanks Rock! GN

[lonelymike]

GFDL puts ONE right into the extreme west end of Galveston at 88knts- 101mph.....not to shabby...highly doubt that will verify...I think its just taking baby steps to catch up with the rest of the models.....


Edit - did make 96knots before landfall....that is a high end Cat 2 and very Ikish.....

Well its destroyed New Orleans and Galveston in its runs this week. Seems like its taking lessons from the CMC this year!

[lonelymike]

Even though the EURO flipped flopped it did originally show a West Gulf landfall... looks like it wins again.

I

That type of complacency in posting is what makes people want to contest you so-called "Euro Huggers". Can you please NOT try and spread false complacency? You can go around talking all you want about how "the Euro won", after the storm has dissipated.

What are you talking about? The accuracy of the Euro over other models?

[KWT]

Still not too clear exactly the region we are looking at as some models have shifted back towards Texas, even the ECM is a little to the north of its last track with Alex.

[ocala]

I run a hurricane program called Storm Trakker.
It has well over a hundred models to run. Could you guys tell me what are the basic models I should use for Atlantic storms.

[Nederlander]

I run a hurricane program called Storm Trakker.
It has well over a hundred models to run. Could you guys tell me what are the basic models I should use for Atlantic storms.

someone else may be able to add a couple that ive left out, but here are a few.. GFS, Euro (ECMWF), GFDL, CMC, HWRF, UKMET, NOGAPS, BAMS

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL has a much more left shift and now makes landfall around the Mexico/Texas border.

099
WHXX04 KWBC 261119
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 84.6 280./ 7.0
6 16.9 85.3 288./ 7.9
12 17.2 86.2 287./ 9.0
18 17.8 87.1 305./10.4
24 18.5 88.1 302./11.3
30 18.9 89.2 293./10.9
36 19.4 89.8 311./ 7.9
42 19.8 90.3 306./ 6.5
48 20.3 90.8 311./ 6.4
54 20.8 91.3 320./ 6.6
60 21.3 91.5 335./ 5.1
66 21.6 91.8 321./ 4.6
72 22.0 92.1 322./ 4.8
78 22.8 92.6 323./ 9.1
84 23.3 93.1 314./ 6.7
90 24.0 93.8 319./ 9.7
96 24.6 94.6 303./ 9.4
102 25.0 95.5 297./ 9.1
108 25.4 96.3 294./ 8.0
114 25.7 96.9 297./ 6.0
120 26.0 97.6 295./ 6.9
126 26.2 98.2 289./ 6.3

[rockyman]

[ronjon]

Finally really good model consensus for BOC and second landfall in mexico or south Tx. All the models are on board now - just a matter of fine tuning the actual landfall point. Gotta hand it to the Euro again - it seems to sniff out the upper level conditions much better than any of the other models far earlier.

[gatorcane]

Finally really good model consensus for BOC and second landfall in mexico or south Tx. All the models are on board now - just a matter of fine tuning the actual landfall point. Gotta hand it to the Euro again - it seems to sniff out the upper level conditions much better than any of the other models far earlier.

Keep in mind that earlier this week while 93L was still in the Central Caribbean, the ECMWF was rather inconsistent on how it handled 93L. The GFS was very consistent in bringing 93L through the Western Caribbean, Yucatan and into the BOC, Western GOM. The ECMWF eventually came on board with the GFS. The GFS, however, did not do so well on the organization part, only showing a strong wave or weak TS into the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF is all Mexico with landfall near Tampico.

[Dean4Storms]

Finally really good model consensus for BOC and second landfall in mexico or south Tx. All the models are on board now - just a matter of fine tuning the actual landfall point. Gotta hand it to the Euro again - it seems to sniff out the upper level conditions much better than any of the other models far earlier.

Keep in mind that earlier this week while 93L was still in the Central Caribbean, the ECMWF was rather inconsistent on how it handled 93L. The GFS was very consistent in bringing 93L through the Western Caribbean, Yucatan and into the BOC, Western GOM. The ECMWF eventually came on board with the GFS. The GFS, however, did not do so well on the organization part, only showing a strong wave or weak TS into the Yucatan.

Exactly, a couple of the ECMWF's first runs when it first became Invest93L in the eastern Carib. had a monster hurricane bearing down on the FL Panhandle which set off Accu-Weather.

[cycloneye]

12z BAMS

WHXX01 KWBC 261227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100626 1200 100627 0000 100627 1200 100628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 85.7W 18.1N 87.6W 19.1N 89.4W 20.0N 91.0W
BAMD 17.1N 85.7W 17.6N 87.6W 18.2N 89.5W 19.0N 91.1W
BAMM 17.1N 85.7W 17.8N 87.6W 18.6N 89.5W 19.4N 91.3W
LBAR 17.1N 85.7W 17.7N 87.7W 18.6N 89.8W 19.6N 91.6W
SHIP 40KTS 53KTS 62KTS 70KTS
DSHP 40KTS 53KTS 38KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100628 1200 100629 1200 100630 1200 100701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 92.5W 21.7N 94.5W 22.0N 96.5W 21.8N 98.9W
BAMD 19.6N 92.4W 20.2N 94.5W 20.8N 97.1W 21.1N 100.1W
BAMM 20.1N 92.6W 20.8N 94.9W 21.2N 97.3W 21.2N 99.9W
LBAR 20.9N 93.2W 23.6N 96.3W 27.2N 98.0W 30.6N 96.9W
SHIP 76KTS 85KTS 85KTS 79KTS
DSHP 38KTS 48KTS 47KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 85.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 83.9W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 82.5W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not to sure what to think once Alex gets in the gulf. Yes the ridge right now is plenty strong enough to steer him into Mexico. But the trough is still days away from potentially making an impact on the the southern states and of course breaking down the high and turning Alex north, if it does at all. Problem is I do not think the models have a good handle on the trough yet that is forecast to develop and move down the eastern half of the US. I think there could be some more shifts back to the right by most models once they get a handle on how strong the trough actually is, if it is as strong as forecast.

Alex is forecast to be moving very slowly in the southwestern gulf by wednesday and the trough is forecast to be making its move through the southeastern states at that time as well. Still a little early yet.

[gatorcane]

Not to sure what to think once Alex gets in the gulf. Yes the ridge right now is plenty strong enough to steer him into Mexico. But the trough is still days away from potentially making an impact on the the southern states and of course breaking down the high and turning Alex north, if it does at all. Problem is I do not think the models have a good handle on the trough yet that is forecast to develop and move down the eastern half of the US. I think there could be some more shifts back to the right by most models once they get a handle on how strong the trough actually is, if it is as strong as forecast.

Alex is forecast to be moving very slowly in the southwestern gulf by wednesday and the trough is forecast to be making its move through the southeastern states at that time as well. Still a little early yet.

Good points here but the the trough would have to dig SW quite alot to pick up Alex because note upper-level low is centered NE of the Great Lakes headed East. I don't see it digging far enough SW to pick it up:

Here is the 500MB 00Z (parallel run) GFS plot 4 days from now:

[txagwxman]

Finally really good model consensus for BOC and second landfall in mexico or south Tx. All the models are on board now - just a matter of fine tuning the actual landfall point. Gotta hand it to the Euro again - it seems to sniff out the upper level conditions much better than any of the other models far earlier.

Keep in mind that earlier this week while 93L was still in the Central Caribbean, the ECMWF was rather inconsistent on how it handled 93L. The GFS was very consistent in bringing 93L through the Western Caribbean, Yucatan and into the BOC, Western GOM. The ECMWF eventually came on board with the GFS. The GFS, however, did not do so well on the organization part, only showing a strong wave or weak TS into the Yucatan.

GFS didn't even have this system...ECMWF called this a week ago last Friday. GFS just had a weak low if that.

[Sanibel]

GFS just had a weak low if that.

GFS has always had problems with intensity. What that tells you is it nailed the synoptic. It does that from time to time so it does have some credibility.

[jinftl]

The southward shift in the nhc forecast, backed up with the majority of the models, towards a likely mexican landfall after emerging back into the gulf is encouraging for the oil spill regions in terms of less of an impact, even including an indirect impact of a strong onshore flow pushing oil to the north.

[lester]

[Ivanhater]

Canadian mid Texas coast...I still think Texas has to watch this one. I'm not sold on a solid ridge.