ATL: EARL - Models

[terrapintransit]

the GFS ensembles starting to spread out some.....some west some east...I would be watching that trend....

Appears to be consistent model consenses of a sharp recurve at some point.

[AdamFirst]

12Z NAM 72HR



Extremely close to obliterating the Bahamas (heads NW paralleling the islands)

[JPmia]

those ensembles definitely show a trend west with a consolidation of tracks west of the white line...at the minimum, this will be a VERY close call for A LOT of people....interesting few days ahead of us for sure! stay tuned!

[pgoss11]

the GFS ensembles starting to spread out some.....some west some east...I would be watching that trend....

Appears to be consistent model consenses of a sharp recurve at some point.

Wow!! that looks like most of the models have the sharp recurve further down the coast of the eastern conus

[RevDodd]

Wow!! that looks like most of the models have the sharp recurve further down the coast of the eastern conus

Question: Would this trend indicate a sharper, but slower trough? Seems it would be digging deeper, but arriving later ... hence, a closer call?

[pgoss11]

Wow!! that looks like most of the models have the sharp recurve further down the coast of the eastern conus

Question: Would this trend indicate a sharper, but slower trough? Seems it would be digging deeper, but arriving later ... hence, a closer call?

Quite possibly a sharper, slower trough. It will be very interesting to see the next model runs

[HurrMark]

The 12Z GFS run looks slightly slower than the 06Z run...that would be good news since it would mean more time for the trough to progress eastward and pick it up.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO 72Hrs

[Wx_Warrior]

96 hrs

[Riptide]

It appears that the euro is west of the model consensus now. Very interesting.

[artist]

It appears that the euro is west of the model consensus now. Very interesting.

I think it always has been, hasn't it?

[Wx_Warrior]

[Riptide]

It appears that the euro is west of the model consensus now. Very interesting.

I think it always has been, hasn't it?

Well, it is the only global model that doesn't show a sharp recurve right now. It is farther west than the 12z GFS in particular.

[supercane]

Last 4 GFS runs. Pretty good run-to-run consistency, with 12Z a little farther west early followed by slightly sharper recurve later.

Also as noted elsewhere, GFS does not like 97L (later to be Fiona).

[yzerfan]

What would be the price tag if the euro verified and the storm raked the coast from the Delmarva to Nova Scotia?

[storms in NC]

This is going to be close to NC then on up the coast. If it goes more to the west like it has been going. there will be a land fall. Where and when is the ????????.

[ronjon]

Interesting 12z UKMET run - brings Earl much closer to the north coast of Hispanola, through the eastern Bahamas, and sharply hooks NE before NC OB.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

[OuterBanker]

Looking better all the time. Really like the sharp recurve now predicted by all models.
Hope they come true.

[emeraldislencguy]

i think it is still too early to say it is looking better for the obx
would love to know the strength of the front which is suppose to sweep it out to sea
it may be closer to cape lookout than cape hatteras

[sandyb]

i think it is still too early to say it is looking better for the obx
would love to know the strength of the front which is suppose to sweep it out to sea
it may be closer to cape lookout than cape hatteras

cape lookout is closer to us than hatteras wow that could be worse for us here