ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Riptide]

I really don't think Colin has reached maximum intensity, we shall see.

[Gustywind]

Latest

[StormClouds63]

The system is so small it's hard to figure out how it will fight off the shear and dry air it is forecast to encounter in the next couple of days. I'm not so sure this shouldn't have stayed a TD (based on visual satellite this morning).

I'm thinking this could be our Chris (2006) or Earl (2004) of the season ... but then again, Bonnie had the same problem.

[CrazyC83]

I really don't think Colin has reached maximum intensity, we shall see.

I agree, since I think it is a wave now the environment in the southern Caribbean is quite favorable and I think it will miss the trough entirely. Just my opinion though.

[Gladstone]

That METEOFRANCE photo is so over exposed that it makes everything look about 20x more potent than it really is...

those french just cant get it right.. , seriously if you showed that shot too most people they would think there are two hurricanes cooking

Ya think so? I'd say it just looks like a bunch of puffy clouds. One would have to be pretty 'weather-handicapped' to think there was a hurricane in that image.

That said, I agree it's overly bright.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021545.GIF



Latest

[cycloneye]

What may be a sure thing is if TS Colin or whatever it may be as it approaches the Northern Leewards, will bring some squally weather to some of the islands,that is if it mantains the present 280 degree heading.

[Gustywind]

What may be a sure thing is if TS Colin or whatever it may be as it approaches the Northern Leewards, will bring some squally weather to some of the islands,that is if it mantains the present 280 degree heading.

You're right, and let's hope that Colin begins its turns quickly in the next couple of hours.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion, Colin is lifting already. This is Bonnie II not Floyd II. Eaten alive by hostile Atlantic conditions. The best this could do is find favorability down the road.


I think there's a weak center near 11N-50W.

[Gladstone]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021545.GIF

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031415.GIF

Latest

NHC says 14.2N, 49.5W. Center must be under that lower blob. Notice a hot tower really cranking on the northwest side of the center.

Thanks for nice image/loop.

Edited to remove IMG tags by wxman57...

[Sanibel]

Yeah, the lower center could be the center and the 11N spin is just an eddy.

[fd122]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

[Sanibel]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

I agree. I can't understand what is causing these black IR burst disturbances - which would normally suggest a good storm - to bust so badly these last few years? I should have gone with my first instinct which was hostile conditions and poof (or Bonnie wimp).

[Riptide]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

I'm not surprised at all. Colin is moving along at over 16 kts, almost unsustainable for a developing TC.

[Aric Dunn]

I do believe after a couple hours of analysis ... that there is very likely no closed circ and thus no TS. being so weak and moving so fast that the forward motion has essentially canceled out already light westerly winds of the system effectively opening it up.. It is becoming elongated and probably wont survive long enough for recon to even get to check. But it may try to make a come back during its remaining days..

[HURAKAN]

Every situation is different. Charley in 2004 intensified while moving at 26 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

I do believe after a couple hours of analysis ... that there is very likely no closed circ and thus no TS. being so weak and moving so fast that the forward motion has essentially canceled out already light westerly winds of the system effectively opening it up.. It is becoming elongated and probably wont survive long enough for recon to even get to check. But it may try to make a come back during its remaining days..

the only evidence of closed circ is this very tiny swirl ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[HURAKAN]

Every situation is different. Charley in 2004 intensified while moving at 26 mph.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

[StormClouds63]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

Worst looking? How about Bonnie from last month ... also the victim of the shear monster.

[hurricaneCW]

If a storm has a tight and well defined LLC, then they can strengthen when moving at high speeds. This one was plagued from the start. It struggled to get out of the ITCZ, it dealt with dry and stable air, and now it's heading into high shear. It never really got the conditions it needed to develop a strong LLC and no it's zipping westward like an ordinary wave. I'm not going to give up on it as long as it's still there because of the potential they have to become something in the future.