ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[ROCK]

woke up to a even worse looking TD.....time to look for 95L down in the WALT....the NAM was right as it dissolved TD5 right around FL Panhandle....NEXT

[Weatherfreak000]

The disorganizational trend was due to ULL interaction. The ULL is rapidly moving out of the way. You can bring up a Water Vapor Loop and see the convection refiring as a consequence. The NHC raising intensity on the latest forecast is VERY telling and convection continues to build.

I challenge any of you to imply to me this system isn't improving this morning. You can't. Until then, I will continue to remember bullish on further development, and that is all there is to it.

[hurricaneCW]

for all of those of you with tropical ...depression...watch what is fixing to roll off of africa, l believe it will become our ramp up

If that were true, we would have ramped up 2-3 weeks ago. Probably just another poof wave.

[ROCK]

The disorganizational trend was due to ULL interaction. The ULL is rapidly moving out of the way. You can bring up a Water Vapor Loop and see the convection refiring as a consequence. The NHC raising intensity on the latest forecast is VERY telling and convection continues to build.

I challenge any of you to imply to me this system isn't improving this morning. You can't. Until then, I will continue to remember bullish on further development, and that is all there is to it.

I will take that challenge. It looks like crap.....more so than last night. What are you seeing that is differrent? its a broard low with no center.....I think more than a few METS here would agree.

the ULL was only part of it.....dry air played another part....no LLC....it has another 24hrs to do anything and that is being generous.

But keep hope alive!!

[Wx_Warrior]

Totally agree Rock...Some areas will get some good rain, which is great. Hope TWC cancelled Jim Cantore's flight.

We don't need any big ones in the GOM this year.

See you in "talkin' tropics."

[DTWright]

The disorganizational trend was due to ULL interaction. The ULL is rapidly moving out of the way. You can bring up a Water Vapor Loop and see the convection refiring as a consequence. The NHC raising intensity on the latest forecast is VERY telling and convection continues to build.

I challenge any of you to imply to me this system isn't improving this morning. You can't. Until then, I will continue to remember bullish on further development, and that is all there is to it.

This . . . .

[petit_bois]

Totally agree Rock...Some areas will get some good rain, which is great. Hope TWC cancelled Jim Cantore's flight.

We don't need any big ones in the GOM this year.

See you in "talkin' tropics."

Jim is headed to Paris Island (twitter)

[HurrMark]

Still a TD.

[HURAKAN]

track

[Stormcenter]

Great 11:00am discussion from the NHC concerning TD 5.
I don't think they couldn't have said it any better.

[ROCK]

some models have forseen this set up today...i think it was the GFS, EURO.......ULL shears out TD and sends some energy west while leaving the vortex behind....looks like that is happening...

[Weatherfreak000]

The disorganizational trend was due to ULL interaction. The ULL is rapidly moving out of the way. You can bring up a Water Vapor Loop and see the convection refiring as a consequence. The NHC raising intensity on the latest forecast is VERY telling and convection continues to build.

I challenge any of you to imply to me this system isn't improving this morning. You can't. Until then, I will continue to remember bullish on further development, and that is all there is to it.

I will take that challenge. It looks like crap.....more so than last night. What are you seeing that is differrent? its a broard low with no center.....I think more than a few METS here would agree.

the ULL was only part of it.....dry air played another part....no LLC....it has another 24hrs to do anything and that is being generous.

But keep hope alive!!

Well ROCK, i'm not trying to go with hurricane forecasts here obvious anymore...the point I was trying to make is convection is building...the storm appears to me to be on the rebound. I still see this becoming Danielle.

It's probably not getting any worse looking at least. It is on an organizational trend.

[Bocadude85]

for all of those of you with tropical ...depression...watch what is fixing to roll off of africa, l believe it will become our ramp up

If that were true, we would have ramped up 2-3 weeks ago. Probably just another poof wave.

Its August 11th!!! July is not typically a month you see tropical activity ramp up. August is when activity usually ramps up and we are just now into the 2nd week of August!

[Agua]

near poofdom.

[ROCK]

The disorganizational trend was due to ULL interaction. The ULL is rapidly moving out of the way. You can bring up a Water Vapor Loop and see the convection refiring as a consequence. The NHC raising intensity on the latest forecast is VERY telling and convection continues to build.

I challenge any of you to imply to me this system isn't improving this morning. You can't. Until then, I will continue to remember bullish on further development, and that is all there is to it.

I will take that challenge. It looks like crap.....more so than last night. What are you seeing that is differrent? its a broard low with no center.....I think more than a few METS here would agree.

the ULL was only part of it.....dry air played another part....no LLC....it has another 24hrs to do anything and that is being generous.

But keep hope alive!!

Well ROCK, i'm not trying to go with hurricane forecasts here obvious anymore...the point I was trying to make is convection is building...the storm appears to me to be on the rebound. I still see this becoming Danielle.

It's probably not getting any worse looking at least. It is on an organizational trend.

yes convection is building...might be rebounding better from what it looks like now...I will give you a slowwwww organizational trend....

[Wx_Warrior]

Maybe, just maybe....maybe able to reach WEAK TS status before landfall.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What a lovely looking system.

[poof121]

How high of a chance is there for the LLC to reform under the convection? Is there an MLC there?

[Sanibel]

ULL pulled the structure apart.

[sunnyday]

It looks pretty sad. As I said last night, poof soon (just my opinion). None of the "storms" this season have amounted to much.