ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

#981 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:42 am

Global models don't have high enough resolution to show the true pressure.

edgeblade · #982 Postby **edgeblade** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:42 am

Can someone post an explanation of the current steering pattern for Igor for someone who knows nothing about that sort of thing? Just curious how it's interpreted. Thanks.

hurricaneCW · #983 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:47 am

I just don't see how this could get further west than 60-65W, there is such a huge weakness in the Western Atlantic and Igor is hanging by a string to the subtropical high.

stormhunter7 · #984 Postby **stormhunter7** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:52 am

Good morning Igor!

Sleep well i see... lol

#985 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:53 am

I saved my favorite pic from this morning.

#986 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:55 am

Latest image not too bad either.

chris_fit · #987 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:58 am

stormhunter7 wrote:Good morning Igor! Sleep well i see... lol

Nice! Where can I go to get a map like that showing the track overlay with the latest satellite?

#988 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:01 pm

chris_fit wrote:Nice! Where can I go to get a map like that showing the track overlay with the latest satellite?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

Aric Dunn · #989 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:06 pm

Not exactly doing what its supposed to... lol

cpdaman · #990 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:11 pm

someone mentioned a ULL to igor's east.....and the small ifluence on track that it may have....but i can't find evidence of any ULL....(based on 200 mb vorticity maps).....

ARIC do you think the GFS is out to lunch with it's timing in breaking down the ridge and/or how much In your opinion Igor be "creating his own enviornment" to a degree ....as far as pumping up (ridge)heights to his N and NW .

Aric Dunn · #991 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:14 pm

cpdaman wrote:someone mentioned a ULL to igor's east.....and the small ifluence on track that it may have....but i can't find evidence of any ULL....(based on 200 mb vorticity maps).....

ARIC do you think the GFS is out to lunch with it's timing in breaking down the ridge and/or how much In your opinion Igor be "creating his own enviornment" to a degree ....as far as pumping up (ridge)heights to his N and NW .

yes of course it is... there is no way it can make the 12 hour position that the GFS has.. I still think its going to recurve just not such a near right angle turn as the models are saying..

as for the steering there is still ridging NW of igor in the upper steering levels. which is likely the cause of its present motion. if the ridge holds a little longer than things may change some

Shuriken · #992 Postby **Shuriken** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:16 pm

x-y-no wrote:
painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.
If the GFS is even close to right in building the mid-level ridge over Florida/Cuba/Haiti then that doesn't seem possible. It would have to go SW, which seems unlikely in the extreme.

#993 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:17 pm

cpdaman wrote:someone mentioned a ULL to igor's east.....and the small ifluence on track that it may have....but i can't find evidence of any ULL....(based on 200 mb vorticity maps).....

They were looking at the ULL WAY to the Northeast. Here is a 200 mb streamline map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... l200-0.GIF

#994 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:18 pm

Shuriken wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.
If the GFS is even close to right in building the mid-level ridge over Florida/Cuba/Haiti then that doesn't seem possible. It would have to go SW, which seems unlikely in the extreme.

The synoptic setups were entirely different. For Ike, there was no trough coming from the east to break down the ridge, like we have now.

Aric Dunn · #995 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:22 pm

does not seem to be slowing down all too much .. and its still heading just south of Due west and to meet the next forecast point it would have to be moving WNW.

#996 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:22 pm

Igor is lower in latitude than Ike was, so such a path would take it square into the Caribbean Sea.

#997 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:23 pm

This might be good news. If it gets farther west, it won't impact Bermuda like the current forecast does.

coreyl · #998 Postby **coreyl** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:24 pm

#999 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:24 pm

Definitely moving faster than forecast...close to 45% of the way to the next forecast point, even though only about 26% of the forecast time has elapsed...maybe it's not quite ready to turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Shuriken · #1000 Postby **Shuriken** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:25 pm

Early in Ike's career, as it were, models recurved him.

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