SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 598
WTIO30 FMEE 150637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2010/01/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 51.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/15 18 UTC: 23.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/01/16 06 UTC: 24.8S/53.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/01/16 18 UTC: 26.3S/54.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/01/17 06 UTC: 28.0S/55.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/17 18 UTC: 30.6S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/18 06 UTC: 35.1S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR09 IS LOCATED ABOUT 245 NM TO THE
WESTSOUTHWEST OF
LA REUNION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, LLCC HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN
ORGANISATION. ESTIMATED CENTER APPEARS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF
A CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAVE OCCURED SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT.
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTH OF THE STR,
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. THIS
RATHER
LOW SPEED SHOULD MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE SLIGHT
ACCELERATION BEYOND AS A MID-LAT TROUGH ERODES THE STR.
INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. INDEED, WESTNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS
CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINU.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECASTED AT TAU 36/48 HRS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING UNSTABLE WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN
MASCAREGNAS
ISLANDS (LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS) THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT
48
HOURS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.5S 51.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH
CURVED INFLOW AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 150532Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 150400Z SHIP REPORT ALSO REVEAL
AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KT WINDS. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS ADDED AS FAIR.

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