ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL932010  06/21/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    33    37    46    56    65    70    76    80    84    88
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    33    37    46    56    65    70    76    80    84    88
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    35    41    49    59    70    80    90    96

SHEAR (KT)         7     7    12     9     5     7     7     5     8     4     2     6     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -2    -4    -6    -3    -4    -2    -2    -4    -4    -3    -5    -4
SHEAR DIR        212   168   172   185   266   183   285   263   301   213   291   229   348
SST (C)         28.9  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.1  29.2  29.3  29.5  29.6
POT. INT. (KT)   151   151   151   149   149   149   150   151   152   154   155   159   160
ADJ. POT. INT.   151   150   151   149   148   147   146   145   143   144   145   147   146
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     6     6     8     8    10    10    12    10    12    10
700-500 MB RH     83    84    85    82    81    80    78    74    72    68    67    64    64
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    67    84    82    85    80    80    67    71    65    69    57    52    26
200 MB DIV        83    78    83    84    80    79    58    44    23     7   -11    -3     3
LAND (KM)        238   207   178   195   201   326   231   192   276   265   212   241   228
LAT (DEG N)     13.0  13.3  13.6  14.0  14.3  15.1  15.7  16.3  16.6  16.9  17.4  18.0  18.5
LONG(DEG W)     67.2  68.3  69.4  70.7  71.9  74.3  76.6  78.6  80.3  81.7  83.1  84.3  85.4
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    12    13    12    12    11     9     7     7     7     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      67    56    64    76    76    70    82   113   104    83    91    87    84

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  640  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   6.  13.  21.  26.  31.  34.  36.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  11.  12.  14.  15.  15.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8. -10. -10.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   4.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   5.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   8.  12.  21.  31.  40.  45.  51.  55.  59.  63.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST     06/21/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  81.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 124.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  85.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  23.1 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  67.8 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    49% is   3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    25% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    13% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     7% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST     06/21/10  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST     06/21/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY


[HURAKAN]

151
WHXX01 KWBC 211310
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W
BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W
BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W
BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W
BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W
LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Um...uh oh?

[Frank2]

Ugh - but let's remember that 92L (which SHIPS "jumped all over" on Saturday) was clobbered by the TUTT, so lettuce not get too excited over this latest data run...

[KWT]

SHIPS make this quite a potent system, the ECM eventually goes into overdrive with this system in the Gulf as we all know.

I'd suspect we could well see steady developmnt with this one, esp in the W.Caribbean. I thik the season starts for real soon...

[vacanechaser]

SHIPS make this quite a potent system, the ECM eventually goes into overdrive with this system in the Gulf as we all know.

I'd suspect we could well see steady developmnt with this one, esp in the W.Caribbean. I thik the season starts for real soon...

couldnt agree more... looks like this could start things off... could really go to town too... favorable area... very warm waters...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but based on your Avatar you're biased...

LOL

[Rockin4NOLA]

We aren't potentially looking at a hurricane in the Gulf are we?...uh..oh.... ...kinda worried cause those shear numbers are far lower than what 92L faced.

[Frank2]

The 00Z GFS shows nothing more than perhaps a weak low heading towards TX:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

we'll see if that changes later today...

[srainhoutx]

[Frank2]

There might be enough ridging to keep it moving on a WNW track through the period (unlike a "Charley trough", etc.), and per the GFS, perhaps more of a TX issue...

Frank

[KWT]

I agree Frank, personally I think this may end up being a Yucatan brusher before getting into the W.Gulf, a similar solution to what the 12z ECM had yesterday.

I think the fact the 0z ECM develops the system a little sooner then on other runs explains why its further east on this run.

[JPmia]

Well if we've learned anything over the years it is that the early model predictions on where the storm will go never pan out. I can't tell you how many times South Florida was in the bullseye for a storm's early model plots and then come to find the models shifting away.

[jlauderdal]

Well if we've learned anything over the years it is that the early model predictions on where the storm will go never pan out. I can't tell you how many times South Florida was in the bullseye for a storm's early model plots and then come to find the models shifting away.

exactly. models tend to break those ridges down too fast, those looks like a texas deal to me

[boca]

I know its early in the game but this looks like a Dolly type track if this were to develop due to the strong ridging to the north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, this morning's ECMWF solution is a scary one indeed! A hurricane moving right over the oil spill location would definitely be the worst case scenario IMO:

[Aquawind]

That is disgusting!

[boca]

:uarrow: That is disgusting!

Lets hope that the ridge stays strong enough to keep 93L on a west track.

[Aquawind]

Yep, The forecast confidence will go way up when the GFS picks up on this consistently..

[Stormcenter]

I'll believe it when I see it....especially when we're talking about something "possibly" developing in June.