ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[TheEuropean]

Welcome a new Invest.

NRL has it with 25kts, 1011mb in western caribbean:

[xcool22]

yayyy

[Brent]

Bonnie? Is that you?

[xcool22]

i think so

[bahamaswx]

Welcome to the party.

[Annie Oakley]

A 4th of July surprise for a lot of people

[xcool22]

2005 Cindy hmm

[LaBreeze]

Predictions??

[psyclone]

this looks far more interesting than 95L. it already has "the look". The tropics seem to be percolating nicely during what is a typically very quiet time of year... i wouldn't be surprised if we squeeze out 2 or 3 named storms in July and this could very well be one of them.

[Nederlander]

this looks far more interesting than 95L. it already has "the look". The tropics seem to be percolating nicely during what is a typically very quiet time of year... i wouldn't be surprised if we squeeze out 2 or 3 named storms in July and this could very well be one of them.

It definitely has some nice convection associated with. I would like to see what the GFS, CMC, EURO, and GFDL show as far as path goes.. I have only seen the BAMS and it has 96L just clipping the north end of the yucatan around Cancun. This would be significantly north of Alex's track at this stage. It is already well north of where Alex was and is traveling more to the NW. This could play a role in organization after entering the GoM..

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY
OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Web Cam from Grand Cayman island. Looks like a wet day there.See more cams at Caribbean thread,(Link at my signature)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N76W TO 17N80W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[rockyman]

the early visible loops show a spin around 80W...but could be an MLC...NRL has the center near 82W

[johngaltfla]

Definitely looks like a possible Bonnie, no doubt about it. Well, those who said it would be a very active season are looking to be right at the moment.

[Hugo1989]

Bonnie and Colin coming soon...

Prediction: definitely 96-L is Bonnie and Colin will be development before july 25.

[Frank P]

the early visible loops show a spin around 80W...but could be an MLC...NRL has the center near 82W

yeah, this thing is a whole lot more interesting than 95... your MLC looks about right, say around 80-81... appears to be heading northwestward...

[rockyman]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 830W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest