ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Bonnie and Alex are demonstrating that things will be getting quite interesting in the Gulf next month when the shear drops.

I guess I'm wishcasting Wxman, when I say that I hope you are wrong.....

[KWT]

That circulation is just about holding on still looking at the loops, there is a couple of cells on the western side trying to keep it on life support.

[MGC]

Looks like the circulation center is SSW of Mobile. Some pretty decent convection has fired up in the NW quadrant which might bring some gusty wind if it holds together at landfall.....MGC

[shell70]

This might have already been asked and answered but I got to know. What is the that convection coming off of the Florida Coast into the Gulf. Is that the tail that was associated with Bonnie yesterday?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201003_sat.html#a_topad

[shell70]

Looks like the circulation center is SSW of Mobile. Some pretty decent convection has fired up in the NW quadrant which migt bring some gusty wind if it holds together at landfall.....MGC

I am just about 22 miles Northwest of Gulf Shores and the wind has picked up here. A nice breeze that makes being outdoors nice.

[shell70]

I just found this webcam of the Big Pier along the eastern shore on Mobile Bay.

http://cofweb1.cofairhope.com/piercam.htm They just put it back up. It went down during Hurricane Katrina and they just got it up and running about a month ago.

[ROCK]

Bonnie was a good lesson for all of us for the rest of the season as far as persistence (she never really should have been alive in that environment) and also steering . Wxman and others pointed out the central gulf states would be at risk this year and this showed that.

I hope everyone stays safe this season because it has been warned over and over, the big ones are coming...

landfalling TC predictions is like throwing darts. WXMN knows this as well as all the other independant agencys out there..Thats why they use the words "we think" "its possible" etc etc..its all about timing and evolution of the upper air pattern on close approach..

IMO, all GOM states are at risk not just central gulf states....

Got to stick up for us Texas folks you know, Ivan....

Landfall prediction areas are based upon analog year landfalls. Taking a look at all the years with a similar pattern going into the start of the season, there were significant impacts across the Caribbean, the SE U.S., and the northern Mexico coast south of Brownsville. Of course, that doesn't guarantee that only those areas will be hit. Bonnie and Alex are demonstrating that things will be getting quite interesting in the Gulf next month when the shear drops.

And thats the kicker. Analog years is about as good as one can get at predicting landfalling systems. There really is no sound science behind it but I get your point though.....these 2 guys were just warning shots for what is about to come this season, IMO...

[KWT]

Looks like the circulation center is SSW of Mobile. Some pretty decent convection has fired up in the NW quadrant which might bring some gusty wind if it holds together at landfall.....MGC

Yeah the convection is a little stronger then it has been for Bonnie recently, I'd imagine daytime heat tomorrow will fire Bonnie's remaining leftovers up withwith convection when its inland.

[nashrobertsx]

it actually lools like some banding on its west/ nw side on radar now.. i dont know how to post the best radr on here, but maybe someone else can and zoom in on the system for us.. also, every tropical system seems to intensify right before landfall..this thing did it when it hit miami, alex did it and so many others.. so i wouldnt be surprised it ramps up a little bit before hitting the coast after midnight..just for historical reasons..kind of like what its doing on radar now..

[taccido]

There is some precip on the radar it seems. Bonnie is a fighter until the very end. What an exciting storm. Bonnie fool everyone. Even the professionals totally failed to predict this perplexing storm.

[RachelAnna]

This might have already been asked and answered but I got to know. What is the that convection coming off of the Florida Coast into the Gulf. Is that the tail that was associated with Bonnie yesterday?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201003_sat.html#a_topad

Good question. I have no idea, but looks interesting. Anyone?

[Ivanhater]

Bonnie was a good lesson for all of us for the rest of the season as far as persistence (she never really should have been alive in that environment) and also steering . Wxman and others pointed out the central gulf states would be at risk this year and this showed that.

I hope everyone stays safe this season because it has been warned over and over, the big ones are coming...

landfalling TC predictions is like throwing darts. WXMN knows this as well as all the other independant agencys out there..Thats why they use the words "we think" "its possible" etc etc..its all about timing and evolution of the upper air pattern on close approach..

IMO, all GOM states are at risk not just central gulf states....

Got to stick up for us Texas folks you know, Ivan....

Oh no doubt about that Rock, I guess I should have been a bit clearer about my thoughts. It was in reference to the notion that this year will be just like 2007 with everything heading west into Mexico. While Mexico is at risk as well, it has been noted the central gulf coast is at a high risk as well as Bonnie has proven. But yes, everyone is at risk was my point

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the remnant low has finally landfallen on the Mississippi River Delta according to New Orleans radar, making a beeline to downtown New Orleans. A broad spin accompanied by a few moderate squalls.

We can only thank the weather Gods for this storm being a remnant low in July taking this track, and not something much more later in the season.

[KWT]

Yep we should just be lucky with the ULL, the only worrying thing is often you'll get a later season storm follow the earlier season storm...

[tigergirl]

Tornado warning not far from me. "Impressive" circulation on radar now...people on the West Bank is getting a good morning call from Bonnie now.

[LSU2001]

Yep Tigergirl,
Woke up to quite an impressive display here in Cut Off myself. It is nice outside though this morning, nice breeze and a heck of a lot of lightning. overall a very cool show.
Tim

[KWT]

Looking fairly active on thwe radar with numerous strong cells in there. Very wet start for SE LA.

[tigergirl]

Looking at this interactive Radar from wwltv.com

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/interactiv ... p=regional

I think this is the best she has looked in her existance!

[Steve]

Kind of surprised. It's been lightning for at least 3 hours, and I'm on the western edge of the circulation. Clouds are still coming down from the north, but should swing around to the SW as the circulation passes by slightly to the east. Pretty heavy rains and much more than I thought we'd get. Glad I stayed up.

[tigergirl]

Kind of surprised. It's been lightning for at least 3 hours, and I'm on the western edge of the circulation. Clouds are still coming down from the north, but should swing around to the SW as the circulation passes by slightly to the east. Pretty heavy rains and much more than I thought we'd get. Glad I stayed up.

Kind of reminds you of Cindy doesn't it..of course Cindy was stronger, but was suppose to be "nothing" then boom all hell breaks loose in Lower Lafourche, then they upgraded her to Cat1 one....which happened over land! I bet those on the Westbank and Central Lafourche area are getting a surprise this morning!