ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[Aric Dunn]

Ah ok fair enough Aric, the GFS doesn't really complete that process till about 60-72hrs, which is probably the best shot at development looking at predicted conditions.

The latest GFS only really hints at development and nothing more this run...

The gfs is not doing too well thus far and am only looking at some synoptics with it.. the 12z ukmet seems quite reasonable..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[Vortex]

18Z GFS stronger this run(some) and brings a closed low through the Northern leeward islands heading towards PR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

gfs went back to a run from the other night.. lol... its a joke..

[KWT]

To be fair the ECM which is normally pretty level has been pretty poor thus far as well, I think this whole merging issue has thrown the models into a tizzy, the models can't seem to decide whether to merge or keep them as two seperate trailing features that prevfent the other from really developing. The models also seem to have a pretty tough time with the upper conditions as well...

[Aric Dunn]

To be fair the ECM which is normally pretty level has been pretty poor thus far as well, I think this whole merging issue has thrown the models into a tizzy, the models can't seem to decide whether to merge or keep them as two seperate trailing features that prevfent the other from really developing. The models also seem to have a pretty tough time with the upper conditions as well...

well again the strength issues with most of the models is because they are either to slow or too fast putting the system in better or worse conditions... but thats just one issue like you said they dont know what to do with the 2 systems

[Vortex]

IMO, the consensus over the last few days is to develop 90L in the next 2-3 days. The differences certainly have been great(intensity wise) from run to run but I think if we put it all together a system over or very near the leeward islands in 6-7 days seams very resonable...

[KWT]

If we were to strictly take the models as they are then you'd probably as you say Vortex have a Tropical Wave/weak Depression close to the Islands...

IMO if it gels then no reason why we won't get our next system from this, the conditions seem good enough at least in the 48-96hrs range, after that and there is just too much model disagreement to make any sort of call.

Just a few hints from the models that conditions maybe half decent by 168hrs, that was when this mornings 0z ECM strengthened the system and its when the 18 GFS also gets going.

[lonelymike]

As pointed out by Wxman57 there is a lot of sinking air in the Atl now so this might be why none of the majors really develop except the Canadian.....oh yeah and the Good for poop model...does that really count as a model?

[CourierPR]

As pointed out by Wxman57 there is a lot of sinking air in the Atl now so this might be why none of the majors really develop except the Canadian.....oh yeah and the Good for poop model...does that really count as a model?

AccuWeather says that the dry, sinking air will be replaced by moist air this coming week.

[Dean4Storms]

That wave will moisten the area around 90L for sure. I think it enhances the convection and we get an LLC out of it in time.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah that wave has a very very large moisture envelope..dont think that should be a problem..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Weatherfreak000]

I'd say that was a Bullish TWO. Really lead me to believe they like two developments here going into august with time.

[cycloneye]

Look for that circle to shrink in the next couple of outlooks as the bigger wave becomes the dominant system.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 21W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM. A
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT ON INFRA RED SATELLITE DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH
OF 12N. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 12N IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ.


...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N25W 8N30W 9N40W 8N50W
12N60W...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N33W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 20W AND 31W AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 57 AND 61W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 35W AND 48W.

[Ivanhater]

Not that this is the most accurate chart in the world, but chances are increasing

[gatorcane]

Definitely having a hard time getting its act together. Not sure why it was ever an invest. We are a bit early for Cape Verde action anyways. Conditions will likely be much more favorable in about 2 weeks.

Just another example that no matter how active a season is expected to be, you can't ignore climatology. That said, still expecting a very active Aug. 15 - Oct 15

[CourierPR]

Definitely having a hard time getting its act together. Not sure why it was ever an invest. We are a bit early for Cape Verde action anyways. Conditions will likely be much more favorable in about 2 weeks.

Just another example that no matter how active a season is expected to be, you can't ignore climatology. That said, still expecting a very active Aug. 15 - Oct 15

I just watched a video on AccuWeather in which meteorologist Ken Reeves offers a much more optimistic assessment of this system's chances of development next week. He also says we could see the system in the eastern Caribbean become a named storm when it reaches the western Caribbean.

[StormTracker]

Does anyone remember what month/year & if there was any development with the 2 systems that are in my avatar? I can't remember! I think it was in 2006 or 2007! Maybe we'll have another situation like that in another week!

[Blown Away]

After what we have seen this evening are the chances going to go down from 20% at 2am? What is the current status of 90L, since the 00z BAMs didn't run can we assume that 90L may be deactivated? Does the merge of these 2 areas create a better opportunity for a system to develop and if they do merge will the circulation center be farther east than 90L's current position?