ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[AJC3]

The NHC should provide easy to follow tracks of these models to the public for each invest and named storm. The public should have every last bit of information the NHC has provided on a massive website. There should also be videos explaining how to read each map and what is means. We are paying for it with our taxes and we deserve absolute 100% knowledge and data. This would be very good!

You have to understand the difference between "the general public" and the "tropical weather enthusiast" community, and the fact that the latter is a tiny, tiny, subset of the former. The amount of information provided for the online "tropical wx community" is aleady significant, and is quite likely the most expansive dataset provided from any forecasting agency on the planet. Not to mention all the datasets that academia provide for free.

The vast majority of people have no idea what most of these products actually mean, nor do they really want to spend the time and learn. They basically want to know if their area is threatened by a tropical system, and how great that threat is. The whole nuts and bolts of tropical analysis and forecasting appeals to a small percentage of the general public. Consequently, having the government put the time and energy into ensuring access to "every last little bit" of information is available, with videos explaining how to use it wouldn't really be effective from a cost/benefit standpoint.

[MWatkins]

The NHC should provide easy to follow tracks of these models to the public for each invest and named storm. The public should have every last bit of information the NHC has provided on a massive website. There should also be videos explaining how to read each map and what is means. We are paying for it with our taxes and we deserve absolute 100% knowledge and data. This would be very good!

You have to understand the difference between "the general public" and the "tropical weather enthusiast" community, and the fact that the latter is a tiny, tiny, subset of the former. The amount of information provided for the online "tropical wx community" is aleady significant, and is quite likely the most expansive dataset provided from any forecasting agency on the planet. Not to mention all the datasets that academia provide for free.

The vast majority of people have no idea what most of these products actually mean, nor do they really want to spend the time and learn. They basically want to know if their area is threatened by a tropical system, and how great that threat is. The whole nuts and bolts of tropical analysis and forecasting appeals to a small percentage of the general public. Consequently, having the government put the time and energy into ensuring access to "every last little bit" of information is available, with videos explaining how to use it wouldn't really be effective from a cost/benefit standpoint.

Hands down, one of the best posts I've seen in a while.

To take this point even further...there are plenty of meteorologists who only dabble in the tropics that don't understand the nuances of the models...even though the information has been out there for ever.

For example...even if they know where to get the GFDL tracks, there are some mets who still believe the NHC delays the release of the GFDL because it's such a good model etc.

That's BS...it's a late model...meaning it doesn't run until the full run of the GFS is finished....but I have seen and heard comments from mets that the NHC is part of a big conspiracy to hide the results.

Weather Underground, Ohio State, FSU (they used to anyway) and some other sites have been aggregating the model data for years...but the source of these models come from totally different places:

NOGAPS: US Navy
UKMET: Uk Met Office in England
GFDL: GFDL Lab @ Princeton University
GFS: US Weather Service in Maryland (I think)

So if trained not all trained meteorologists know all of this really specific stuff, most people wanting to know if a hurricane is going to hit them, with no previous knowledge of these models, might have a learning curve of 2-3 years if they spent 40 hours a week studying this stuff.

Trust me, there's no coverup involved.

Go ahead and search for GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS etc as individual terms and have a party!

Great post and perspective, AJC3...

MW

[KWT]

Models have shifted well west compared to yesterday so this is clearly getting to become an interresting solution.

I suspect though they aren't getting a good grip on the TUTT situation and we may yet see this one die off...but in the Bahamas region, I think conditions look favourable.

[ronjon]

I actually think the future scenario might be a little more dicey now, at least for US east coast residents, compared to yesterday. The Euro, GFDL, HWRF, and earlier runs of the GFS were all pointing to a tropical storm that would fairly rapidly recurve into the open Atlantic just west of Bermuda. Now, with the system degenerating into an open wave, but maintaining a pool of moisture and vorticity, it may travel further south along the north side of the greater antilles, into the Bahamas, and find a more favorable environment for redevelopment east of FL. What's got my attention is the changing synoptics - with each day of model runs, the ridging is getting stronger over the western Atlantic and the trough is not as strong. The models also what to increase the intensity of the system in the long term - signaling better upper air conditions. So, Colin for now is gone but for how long? And will he reappear, stronger, and a greater threat to the US coast at a later date?

[Riptide]

I actually think the future scenario might be a little more dicey now, at least for US east coast residents, compared to yesterday. The Euro, GFDL, HWRF, and earlier runs of the GFS were all pointing to a tropical storm that would fairly rapidly recurve into the open Atlantic just west of Bermuda. Now, with the system degenerating into an open wave, but maintaining a pool of moisture and vorticity, it may travel further south along the north side of the greater antilles, into the Bahamas, and find a more favorable environment for redevelopment east of FL. What's got my attention is the changing synoptics - with each day of model runs, the ridging is getting stronger over the western Atlantic and the trough is not as strong. The models also what to increase the intensity of the system in the long term - signaling better upper air conditions. So, Colin for now is gone but for how long? And will he reappear, stronger, and a greater threat to the US coast at a later date?

This is a great summary my friend. An accurate synopsis of what could happen in Colin's future.

[artist]

Models have shifted well west compared to yesterday so this is clearly getting to become an interresting solution.

I suspect though they aren't getting a good grip on the TUTT situation and we may yet see this one die off...but in the Bahamas region, I think conditions look favourable.

isn't it true though that these latest model runs were assuming there is a ts colin and not what it actually appears to be now? Thus would that not affect the results of these model runs? Am I making sense?

[Blown Away]

Models have shifted well west compared to yesterday so this is clearly getting to become an interresting solution.

I suspect though they aren't getting a good grip on the TUTT situation and we may yet see this one die off...but in the Bahamas region, I think conditions look favourable.

Noticed that too, the BAM models hooking back to the west at the end run.

[Dean4Storms]

Still has potential once it clears the hostile ULL. Nobody along the SE coast is out of the woods on this yet, just because it looks bad now means nothing in 3-4 days!

[KWT]

Yeah as proven time and time and time again in the past. Still the models did well in general with the idea of it weakening around 50W, and they did a good job with the amazingly fast flow that is occuring at the moment.

Still they seem to be missing the TUTT at the moment because quite a few still strengthen the system.

[KWT]

The 18z GFS tries to strengthen it but then weakens the system again as it interacts with the TUTT.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps blows it up

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

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177
WHXX01 KWBC 040037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100804 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  0000   100804  1200   100805  0000   100805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  54.7W   18.0N  58.9W   20.0N  62.6W   21.8N  65.8W
BAMD    16.3N  54.7W   17.7N  57.8W   19.4N  60.4W   21.0N  62.5W
BAMM    16.3N  54.7W   17.9N  58.3W   19.9N  61.2W   21.7N  63.5W
LBAR    16.3N  54.7W   18.1N  58.7W   19.8N  62.1W   21.6N  64.8W
SHIP        30KTS          28KTS          31KTS          36KTS
DSHP        30KTS          28KTS          31KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  0000   100807  0000   100808  0000   100809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.4N  68.4W   25.8N  71.4W   27.8N  72.7W   29.6N  73.8W
BAMD    22.7N  64.1W   25.3N  65.4W   26.5N  66.7W   26.3N  69.0W
BAMM    23.5N  65.2W   26.3N  67.2W   28.6N  68.3W   30.5N  69.5W
LBAR    23.6N  66.7W   27.1N  67.6W   29.9N  67.0W   31.2N  66.4W
SHIP        40KTS          47KTS          57KTS          63KTS
DSHP        40KTS          47KTS          57KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  54.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  28KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  49.3W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  31KT
LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 =  44.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

00z SHIP run

Wow,how dramatic is the shear reduction at the 84-120 hour timeframe.

Code: Select all

                *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *       COLIN  AL042010  08/04/10  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    29    28    29    31    36    40    44    47    51    57    61    63
V (KT) LAND       30    29    28    29    31    36    40    44    47    51    57    61    63
V (KT) LGE mod    30    29    28    29    29    30    31    32    33    36    42    50    59

SHEAR (KT)        11    14    18    17    16    20    24    19    18     5     6     4     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4     1     3     0     1     0     6    -2     3    -4     2    -2     1
SHEAR DIR        285   288   276   277   270   276   254   271   234   165   131    37   304
SST (C)         28.8  29.0  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   153   156   152   149   148   146   146   149   148   150   149   146   144
ADJ. POT. INT.   165   163   154   148   145   139   136   135   132   131   127   121   117
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    12    12    12    11    12    11    11    11    11    10    11
700-500 MB RH     59    56    53    54    58    57    56    55    53    52    57    58    58
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     8     7     7     8     8     8     6     6     4     4     3     3
850 MB ENV VOR    38    32    24    16     7   -11   -31   -68   -58   -46    -9   -35   -39
200 MB DIV         4    11    23    35    37    31    35    15    14    24    22    24    11
LAND (KM)        914   829   720   554   407   300   435   530   692   833   742   626   574
LAT (DEG N)     16.3  17.1  17.8  18.6  19.4  21.0  22.8  24.4  26.0  27.5  28.9  29.9  30.5
LONG(DEG W)     54.7  56.8  58.9  60.5  62.0  64.9  67.3  69.0  70.3  71.5  72.8  73.2  73.1
STM SPEED (KT)    25    21    19    17    16    15    13    11    10     9     7     4     3
HEAT CONTENT      81    85    78    60    63    45    49    40    43    43    21    21    21

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 28      CX,CY: -25/ 10
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  724  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  13.  19.  24.  27.  29.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   0.  -1.  -1.   1.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE           -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.  10.  11.  11.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.  -2.  -1.   1.   6.  10.  14.  17.  21.  27.  31.  33.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010      COLIN 08/04/10  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.2 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 125.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  65.8 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.2 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  73.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010      COLIN 08/04/10  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010      COLIN 08/04/2010  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[CourierPR]

It's interesting to note that Accuweather has a model graphic that takes the remnant low through the islands, Puerto Rico, and turns it toward the NW just north of Hispaniola.

[hurricaneCW]

If the shear after 72 hours drops below 10 knots, then some of those models that re intensify the storm may be correct. I'm still surprised how far east they are, with such a weak system heading into a high shear zone, I think the storm could get all the way to 75W at least.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z gfs 36h

[Wx_Warrior]

48h

[MWatkins]

Through 48 hours GFS is well north of the 12Z at 60 hrs...at the same longitude. Looks like a recurve on this run.

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]