ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Ivanhater]

Yep..not developing til late is the saving grace here...can't get much more of an opening for the gulf than what the Euro shows...what ridge? That trough over the east splits it wide open...

[Wx_Warrior]

Crown weather:

I just think high pressure over the southern United States is too strong and this would keep the system down in the Caribbean with a landfall in Honduras or Belize on Saturday/

Brownsville AFD:

RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN SOLID CENTERPIECES OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY CRACK IN THE
WINDOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEAS...YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE A PERSISTENT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING NEEDED MOISTURE TO FUEL CONVECTION.

[Ivanhater]

Houston AFD

HOT AND PRIMARILY DRY RAIN-WISE...BUT NOT IN HUMIDITY...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 5H RIDGE FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A POSSIBLE
EASTERN GOM WAVE TO UNDERCUT THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS
WAVE/INVERTED TROF MAKING IT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY.


Nola AFD

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE COAST AND SCATTERED
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY HOWEVER...HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. AFTN TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE GULF COAST
AND STALLING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Would anyone like to explain the weakness the Euro shows instead of a ridge? I have yet to hear someone explain why it shows a weakness but at this point this is getting off topic...

[KWT]

There is a serious of fairly deep upper troughs for August pushing through the states/Canada over the next 7-10 days but for now the system probably won't develop so it won't be caught up and removed from the easterlies which are quite strong.

[Ivanhater]

There is a serious of fairly deep upper troughs for August pushing through the states/Canada over the next 7-10 days but for now the system probably won't develop so it won't be caught up and removed from the easterlies which are quite strong.

Yeah, it looks like it won't develop much so it's not going to matter much if a weakness is present...

Everything looks quiet for now, so I'm heading out for some drinks..

[AJC3]

Houston AFD

HOT AND PRIMARILY DRY RAIN-WISE...BUT NOT IN HUMIDITY...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 5H RIDGE FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A POSSIBLE
EASTERN GOM WAVE TO UNDERCUT THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS
WAVE/INVERTED TROF MAKING IT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY.


Would anyone like to explain the weakness the Euro shows instead of a ridge? I have yet to hear someone explain why it shows a weakness but at this point this is getting off topic...

B/c the surface ridge is not really a good proxy for determining steering flow for a TW, TC, etc. What's going on at the mid levels tends to be a bit different. For a t-wave, you'll probably want to look at H85-H70 flow for a rough approximation on what the steering flow will be.

[Ivanhater]

Houston AFD

HOT AND PRIMARILY DRY RAIN-WISE...BUT NOT IN HUMIDITY...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 5H RIDGE FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A POSSIBLE
EASTERN GOM WAVE TO UNDERCUT THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS
WAVE/INVERTED TROF MAKING IT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY.


Would anyone like to explain the weakness the Euro shows instead of a ridge? I have yet to hear someone explain why it shows a weakness but at this point this is getting off topic...

B/c the surface ridge is not really a good proxy for determining steering flow for a TW, TC, etc. What's going on at the mid levels tends to be a bit different. For a t-wave, you'll probably want to look at H85-H70 flow for a rough approximation on what the steering flow will be.

Ah wouldn't the 500mb heights show this like on the Euro...and a weakness develop over the central/eastern gulf?



As the trough digs over the east the ridge moves off to the west like the Mobile AFD mentions?

THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION RETROGRADING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[AJC3]

B/c the surface ridge is not really a good proxy for determining steering flow for a TW, TC, etc. What's going on at the mid levels tends to be a bit different. For a t-wave, you'll probably want to look at H85-H70 flow for a rough approximation on what the steering flow will be.

Ah wouldn't the 500mb heights show this like on the Euro...and a weakness develop over the central/eastern gulf?



As the trough digs over the east the ridge moves off to the west like the Mobile AFD mentions?

THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION RETROGRADING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.[/quote]

At first glance, but you'd really want to look at a H50 map with 10M contours and focus in on heights/winds in the area between about 15-25N or so. To be fair, there may be some weakeness developing around TX (hence the surface low there), but at 60M resolution, it's insufficient to really say for sure.

[Ivanhater]

Great explanation Tony...are the higher resolution maps available to the public?

[srainhoutx]

Don't I wish! Major bucks Michael.

[AJC3]

Great explanation Tony...are the higher resolution maps available to the public?

That I'm not sure of, but I think Plymouth State is supposed to have a really good "create your own" type of map site....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: Don't I wish! Major bucks Michael.

As a college student, I sure don't have it!

Well, this would have been a very interesting discussion if we saw a better stacked system but it doesn't look like that will happen

[Ivanhater]

Great explanation Tony...are the higher resolution maps available to the public?

That I'm not sure of, but I think Plymouth State is supposed to have a really good "create your own" type of map site....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

Thanks for the link Tony!

[TexasF6]

From Austin's FD...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS... WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT KCRP REPORTING A PWAT VALUE OF 1.98 INCHES.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND.

GFS-MOS WAS STILL HIGH ON THE MAX TEMPERATURES AS IT DOES NOT
HANDLE SURFACE MOISTURE WELL SO ADJUSTED THESE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER
WITH THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST... THIS WILL
ASSIST IN ADDING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. COUPLE THE ADDED MOISTURE
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS... HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 103-108.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... KEPT IT AT SLIGHT
CHANCES AND IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.

[TexasF6]

Ivan--do you buy that High doing all that dancing around this weekend? Will that motion open the GOM up for something?

[KWT]

:uarrow: Don't I wish! Major bucks Michael.

FWIW, I believe a middle of the range data from the UKMO is 70000 pounds a year, so I'd imagine the ECM data would be a good deal higher then that...add together other models and I'd guess the NHC/NOAA would have to shell out quite a bit of money...thats probably why they won't use the ECM as a starting point for a hurricane model, it'd probably cost too much I'd imagine out of the budget considering how expensive it is in the first place.

[floridasun78]

let see when first new models runs done again

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 061816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100806 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  0600   100807  1800   100808  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  84.6W   16.8N  86.7W   17.5N  89.0W   18.3N  91.3W
BAMD    16.3N  84.6W   16.9N  86.6W   17.5N  88.8W   18.0N  91.0W
BAMM    16.3N  84.6W   16.9N  86.7W   17.6N  89.1W   18.3N  91.3W
LBAR    16.3N  84.6W   17.2N  86.7W   18.2N  89.0W   19.1N  91.3W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          29KTS          28KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100808  1800   100809  1800   100810  1800   100811  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  93.5W   21.7N  97.8W   23.6N 102.0W   24.5N 105.9W
BAMD    18.4N  93.2W   19.1N  97.8W   19.7N 102.6W   20.1N 108.2W
BAMM    19.0N  93.6W   20.6N  98.2W   21.9N 103.0W   22.5N 108.6W
LBAR    20.0N  93.4W   22.2N  98.0W   24.4N 101.8W   25.7N 104.9W
SHIP        56KTS          71KTS          79KTS          81KTS
DSHP        36KTS          35KTS          28KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  84.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  15.0N LONM12 =  82.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  80.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing really to see on 12z EURO

[chzzdekr81]

Intensity models show Danielle/Earl in 48-60 hours: