ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 040051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  0000   100804  1200   100805  0000   100805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  69.1W   14.4N  72.5W   15.5N  75.8W   16.2N  78.8W
BAMD    13.5N  69.1W   14.1N  71.9W   14.7N  74.6W   15.4N  77.2W
BAMM    13.5N  69.1W   14.2N  72.0W   15.1N  74.8W   16.0N  77.5W
LBAR    13.5N  69.1W   14.2N  72.2W   15.3N  75.3W   16.3N  78.3W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  0000   100807  0000   100808  0000   100809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  81.7W   18.3N  86.8W   19.4N  91.6W   20.7N  96.4W
BAMD    16.2N  79.5W   17.6N  83.6W   18.0N  87.5W   18.2N  91.5W
BAMM    17.0N  80.0W   18.9N  84.2W   20.2N  88.2W   21.5N  92.4W
LBAR    17.7N  81.1W   20.6N  85.6W   23.3N  88.5W   24.9N  90.4W
SHIP        50KTS          61KTS          69KTS          74KTS
DSHP        50KTS          61KTS          50KTS          41KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  69.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 =  65.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  62.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Ivanhater]

Nice strengthening up to 61kts before land...HWRF and GFDL should be interesting if they develop it. Like I said in the earlier thread, if we have a deep trough digging over the east to turn Colin, I don't see a strong ridge to slam this into CA. This assuming something were to develop ...

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, those model runs are definately North of what many of us(including me) thought they would be.....

[ConvergenceZone]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

[lonelymike]

[quote="ConvergenceZone"]Well, those model runs are definately North of what many of us(including me) thought they would be.....[/quote

Really where were u thinking this was going? CA?

[TwisterFanatic]

So they tagged this huh?

[southerngale]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

CLP5 is climo.

[lonelymike]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

Clp isn't a model. Kinda of a climatology model. Course given some of the crap the main models have been putting out this year its probably as good as any

[ConvergenceZone]

Really where were u thinking this was going? CA?

If you look at the XTRP, which I know is only a straight line based upon where it is now, that's pretty much the path I figured it would take, due to ridging, but Ivanhater may have a valid point. It's too early to say.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

CLP5 is climo.

Oh okay sorry southerngale. Thanks for the info. That's why I never talk much about a specific models like others do, because I don't know much about them ..I learn something new every day though...

[lonelymike]

Really where were u thinking this was going? CA?

If you look at the XTRP, which I know is only a straight line based upon where it is now, that's pretty much the path I figured it would take, due to ridging, but Ivanhater may have a valid point. It's too early to say.

Ivan wants an excuse to stay up late with Rock arguing over the Euro run

[HURAKAN]

So they tagged this huh?

Is that a question or you're just asserting that the Caribbean disturbance has been upgraded to invest?

[Ivanhater]

Did someone say Euro

Goes to Yucatan, but if we have a stronger system, the ridge is displaced so would allow for it to gain a lot more latitude

[TwisterFanatic]

So they tagged this huh?

Is that a question or you're just asserting that the Caribbean disturbance has been upgraded to invest?

It was a question. I didn't think they would make a invest.

[jlauderdal]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

clipper the sniffer dog..no dice, it is worthless

[ConvergenceZone]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

clipper the sniffer dog..no dice, it is worthless

I wonder why they just don't leave it off the model map then. It makes no sense if nothing can be derived from looking at it...

[Macrocane]

Actually it's not that pointless as you can see the path that other systems have followed historicallya lthough it may not be as useful as the other models.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know the CLP5 model is probably junk, but perhaps it's sniffing out the same thing you are talking about Ivanhater.

clipper the sniffer dog..no dice, it is worthless

I wonder why they just don't leave it off the model map then. It makes no sense if nothing can be derived from looking at it...

its more of a historical average, showing what previous storms in the same area did. Its not worthless but its not necessarily going to be right

[cycloneye]

Lets see what GFDL and HWRF do in their first runs. Will come out around 1:30 AM EDT.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One showing New Orleans getting destroyed, the other Houston/Galveston. Then flip to C.A. tomorrow for the 12z runs.