ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing again but the LLC remains exposed

but there's some "love" in the convection

[HURAKAN]

nice heart made by the convection

[thetruesms]

Aww, how cute. But I do have another softball game tomorrow night - the correlation between my games and tropical cyclogenesis seems to be remarkable. TD 5 tonight, so I'm sure this will come together tomorrow!

But on a serious note, I do wonder if this is ever going to happen. I'm not seeing anything tomorrow that will suddenly allow convection to sustain itself after it hasn't to this point, despite the model support. Perhaps it will be more apparent in the morning after some rest.

[supercane]

Still under SW shear and apparently closer to upper low than the past few days. The heart is gone...

[supercane]

As in above obs, still a circulation on ASCAT, although winds don't appear stronger than 15kt:

[HURAKAN]

70%

470
ABNT20 KNHC 110557
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS
HAS INCREASED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED AND
POORLY ORGANIZED. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane]

LOL. TWO fail: AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY (any what?)

[HURAKAN]

LOL. TWO fail: AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY (any what?)

"TIME"

That's usually how it ends

[ColinDelia]

LOL. TWO fail: AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY (any what?)

"TIME"

That's usually how it ends

I guess they felt it had enough time already.

Looking better though

[ColinDelia]

This looks closer to a depression than it ever has. If this convection holds another 6 hours I bet they upgrade

[KWT]

The circulation is looking awfully elongated right now but the convection looks good...

No different to what TD5 was last night, if that was upgraded then there is just no reason to not upgrade this one but then again this is the NHC...who no offense to them....its one rule for one part of the basin and another rule for the other.

[pepeavilenho]

This is madness!!! (IMO)



And still it is not a depression.....






OMG!!

[cycloneye]

If this trend continues,I can see them upgrading at 11 AM.

[Thunder44]

This one looks better than than TD #5 at this point. It looks like the center is relocating/reforming further east, closer to convection.

[cycloneye]

The new words added here are " ANY TIME".

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 253N, 540W, 30, 1011, LO

[brunota2003]

Go boy go, go boy go!!! I never gave up on ya, and I feel the love today =] *well, last night actually*

[HURAKAN]

for the first time in many days, the center isn't visible bc of the convection

[cycloneye]

Finnally, I cant see the LLC.

[thetruesms]

Unfortunately, the high clouds are getting "softer" on vis, and the tops are warming. This guy's going to need another boost to avoid ending up right back at square one.