ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

[supercane]

[SootyTern]

Wonder if this system will surprise people down the road. The models seem to have been calling for it to immediately start going strongly NW then N for quite some time now and it keeps trucking west. W into a huge ULL, but it will be interesting to see whether it gets completely obliterated, or it survives further west, or finally turns N like it is forecast.

[HURAKAN]

076
WHXX01 KWBC 101242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100810 1200 100811 0000 100811 1200 100812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 51.4W 24.8N 52.8W 25.6N 53.9W 26.4N 54.5W
BAMD 24.1N 51.4W 25.1N 53.0W 26.4N 54.3W 28.0N 55.5W
BAMM 24.1N 51.4W 24.8N 52.9W 25.6N 54.0W 26.7N 54.8W
LBAR 24.1N 51.4W 24.9N 52.4W 25.6N 53.3W 26.4N 53.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100812 1200 100813 1200 100814 1200 100815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 54.7W 30.3N 53.8W 33.4N 49.4W 36.0N 44.6W
BAMD 29.3N 56.5W 32.5N 57.1W 37.4N 51.9W 43.3N 41.5W
BAMM 27.9N 55.3W 31.4N 55.5W 36.2N 51.0W 40.7N 44.5W
LBAR 27.3N 54.0W 29.5N 53.2W 33.4N 49.9W 37.3N 44.9W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 51.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 50.2W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 48.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Looking like the models have verified very well with this one, the GFS was too quick on the recurve, the ECM looks like its done very well with this.

Models still strengthen this quite well way north somewhere near 35-40N which maybe due to it starting to get outside help so to speak.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP takes it to hurricane for the first time since the running of models started.

Code: Select all

473
WHXX01 KWBC 101839
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  0600   100811  1800   100812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.2N  51.9W   24.9N  53.4W   25.8N  54.6W   26.6N  55.5W
BAMD    24.2N  51.9W   25.6N  53.2W   27.3N  54.3W   29.1N  55.1W
BAMM    24.2N  51.9W   25.0N  53.4W   26.1N  54.6W   27.2N  55.4W
LBAR    24.2N  51.9W   24.8N  52.9W   25.7N  53.6W   26.6N  54.0W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          42KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800   100815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.7N  56.2W   31.1N  57.1W   36.1N  56.2W   39.1N  56.7W
BAMD    30.8N  55.8W   35.0N  55.6W   41.0N  49.6W   47.1N  35.5W
BAMM    28.6N  56.2W   32.5N  57.0W   37.8N  54.4W   42.1N  50.7W
LBAR    27.8N  54.1W   30.8N  52.9W   35.5N  49.0W   40.8N  42.9W
SHIP        47KTS          58KTS          67KTS          57KTS
DSHP        47KTS          58KTS          67KTS          57KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.2N LONCUR =  51.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  23.7N LONM12 =  50.9W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  23.5N LONM24 =  49.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[HURAKAN]

Luis, look at the model run I posted earlier. It too took it to hurricane intensity.

[cycloneye]

Luis, look at the model run I posted earlier. It too took it to hurricane intensity.

Oh Ok,I was not here for most of the morning.But anyway at 18z it goes to 67kts.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100811 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100811  0000   100811  1200   100812  0000   100812  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.6N  52.6W   25.4N  53.9W   26.3N  54.7W   27.2N  55.3W
BAMD    24.6N  52.6W   26.1N  53.5W   27.9N  54.2W   29.8N  54.6W
BAMM    24.6N  52.6W   25.4N  53.8W   26.5N  54.7W   27.6N  55.3W
LBAR    24.6N  52.6W   25.6N  53.3W   26.5N  53.5W   27.7N  53.6W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100813  0000   100814  0000   100815  0000   100816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.4N  55.7W   32.1N  55.5W   36.8N  53.3W   40.0N  53.0W
BAMD    31.7N  54.7W   36.7N  53.1W   42.9N  47.1W   47.7N  35.8W
BAMM    29.2N  55.6W   33.4N  55.3W   38.5N  51.8W   42.4N  50.7W
LBAR    29.0N  53.5W   32.7N  51.3W   37.5N  46.6W   42.0N  40.2W
SHIP        43KTS          56KTS          63KTS          61KTS
DSHP        43KTS          56KTS          63KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.6N LONCUR =  52.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  24.0N LONM12 =  51.4W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  23.6N LONM24 =  50.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 111238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100811 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100811  1200   100812  0000   100812  1200   100813  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.3N  54.0W   26.1N  54.9W   27.0N  55.6W   28.1N  56.2W
BAMD    25.3N  54.0W   27.2N  54.0W   29.1N  53.8W   31.2N  53.6W
BAMM    25.3N  54.0W   26.5N  54.5W   27.7N  54.7W   29.3N  54.8W
LBAR    25.3N  54.0W   26.5N  54.2W   27.4N  54.2W   28.9N  53.6W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          41KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100813  1200   100814  1200   100815  1200   100816  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.6N  56.9W   34.0N  56.7W   37.4N  55.8W   39.1N  56.9W
BAMD    33.6N  53.1W   39.9N  49.7W   45.7N  42.7W   49.0N  30.9W
BAMM    31.2N  54.9W   36.4N  53.5W   40.7N  52.2W   43.0N  53.5W
LBAR    30.7N  53.2W   35.2N  50.3W   40.5N  45.3W   44.9N  39.3W
SHIP        48KTS          53KTS          49KTS          38KTS
DSHP        48KTS          53KTS          49KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.3N LONCUR =  54.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  24.6N LONM12 =  52.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  24.0N LONM24 =  51.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM