ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[cycloneye]

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WHXX01 KWBC 081405
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1405 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100808  1200   100809  0000   100809  1200   100810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  78.6W   30.4N  78.6W   30.8N  79.4W   31.1N  80.5W
BAMD    30.3N  78.6W   29.5N  78.7W   28.8N  79.7W   28.3N  81.2W
BAMM    30.3N  78.6W   29.9N  78.8W   29.6N  79.8W   29.3N  81.2W
LBAR    30.3N  78.6W   30.1N  78.6W   30.0N  79.1W   30.0N  80.1W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          32KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100810  1200   100811  1200   100812  1200   100813  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.3N  82.2W   31.6N  86.1W   31.7N  89.3W   31.5N  90.7W
BAMD    27.8N  83.1W   27.6N  87.3W   28.4N  91.3W   29.3N  93.9W
BAMM    28.8N  83.2W   28.2N  87.3W   28.3N  90.9W   29.0N  93.2W
LBAR    30.1N  81.4W   30.0N  84.6W   30.3N  87.5W   31.1N  89.9W
SHIP        33KTS          36KTS          39KTS          42KTS
DSHP        31KTS          34KTS          38KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.3N LONCUR =  78.6W DIRCUR = 195DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  31.1N LONM12 =  78.3W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  32.4N LONM24 =  77.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

12z NAM:

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

[Portastorm]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

Likely will move W/WSW as indicated by the BAMM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

I don't know, maybe the storm will move slow enough where the high will be out of the way by the time the storm actually arrives.

[ROCK]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

I can see a wsw motion in the short term....I wouldnt rule out TX but all depends on where the weakness is and where it comes off of FL..further north...Maybe LA...further south TX comes into play.

[Portastorm]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

I don't know, maybe the storm will move slow enough where the high will be out of the way by the time the storm actually arrives.

Yep, could be. Morning AFDs out of several Texas NWSFOs mention the 0z NAM run and the "potential" ... but they also mention the ridge all week. Given how many GOMers are here on S2K, this invest will garner lots of attention!

[srainhoutx]

GFS is not impressed.

[ROCK]

GFS is not impressed.

yep, loses it around 72hr....poof...

[perk]

Based upon that first model run, It looks to be a texas storm in the next few days. If so, there's plenty of time for development.

I see that but we're supposed to have a strong high parked over us much of the week ... don't know how a tropical system will overcome that.

Portastorm it depends on how that high is positioned will be a very important factor.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian: Mobile

[StormTracker]

I was wondering where you were! Haven't seen you for a minute IH! I think this season's switch is a dimmer switch that can go from dim-bright in a flash vs. a conventional on/off switch! Where did 94L come from? Where any models digging on this before today?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z CMC developing 94L...intensity is quite unclear but it seems to be a weak tropical storm making landfall near the Mississippi/Florida border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

I was wondering where you were! Haven't seen you for a minute IH! I think this season's switch is a dimmer switch that can go from dim-bright in a flash vs. a conventional on/off switch! Where did 94L come from? Where any models digging on this before today?

I am not Ivan,but I can tell you,from the past 3 days the models have been sniffing at this.See thread at Talking Tropics were it was discussed.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108883&start=0

[Dean4Storms]

12z CMC developing 94L...intensity is quite unclear but it seems to be a weak tropical storm making landfall near the Mississippi/Florida border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

There is no Miss/FL border, I think you meant AL/MS border.

Anyway, all will depend on how deep this system gets and where the weakness in the ridge plays out.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO has weak system in S. Central LA. Thursday.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 081848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100808  1800   100809  0600   100809  1800   100810  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  79.5W   29.6N  79.9W   30.0N  80.8W   30.2N  82.1W
BAMD    29.5N  79.5W   28.5N  80.2W   27.9N  81.4W   27.4N  83.1W
BAMM    29.5N  79.5W   29.2N  80.2W   29.1N  81.4W   28.9N  83.1W
LBAR    29.5N  79.5W   28.8N  80.1W   28.4N  81.3W   28.1N  83.0W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          32KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          26KTS          30KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  1800   100812  1800   100813  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.6N  83.8W   31.4N  87.3W   32.1N  89.1W   32.2N  89.5W
BAMD    27.2N  85.0W   28.0N  89.2W   29.6N  93.1W   31.0N  96.1W
BAMM    28.9N  85.0W   29.5N  89.0W   30.6N  92.1W   31.5N  94.1W
LBAR    28.0N  85.0W   28.1N  89.7W   28.9N  94.2W   30.2N  97.6W
SHIP        34KTS          36KTS          39KTS          40KTS
DSHP        32KTS          34KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  29.5N LONCUR =  79.5W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  30.6N LONM12 =  78.6W DIRM12 = 207DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  31.6N LONM24 =  78.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

18z SHIP Run

Shear will be moderate but goes down at the end of run.

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               *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL942010  08/08/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    29    30    32    34    35    36    37    39    40    40
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    29    26    30    32    33    34    29    28    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    25    25    23    28    28    30    31    28    27    27    27

SHEAR (KT)        22    25    26    25    18    13    17    17    17    12    18    12    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     3     2     0     1     0     2    -4     2     0    -1    -1    -2
SHEAR DIR        334   342   356    11    24    34    84    91   108   125   121   156   125
SST (C)         29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.1  29.6  30.2  30.3  30.6  30.7  30.1  29.8  29.0
POT. INT. (KT)   149   149   149   150   152   161   171   171   171   170   170   164   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   125   123   124   125   129   138   149   152   156   155   141   135   123
200 MB T (C)   -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    10     9    10     9    11     9    12    10    12    10    14
700-500 MB RH     54    55    52    55    54    52    57    53    54    49    57    50    49
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     5     6     6     6     6     7     5     3     2     2  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -6    -9   -29   -21   -10   -40   -15   -36   -24   -61   -20   -56   -32
200 MB DIV        25    30   -13   -25    -3   -13    12    -3    11     0    14     0    -2
LAND (KM)        151   113    76    23   -34    29    94   149    29   -22   -90  -136  -196
LAT (DEG N)     29.5  29.4  29.2  29.2  29.1  28.9  28.9  29.1  29.5  30.0  30.6  31.0  31.5
LONG(DEG W)     79.5  79.9  80.2  80.8  81.4  83.1  85.0  87.0  89.0  90.6  92.1  93.0  94.1
STM SPEED (KT)     5     3     4     5     7     8     8     9     8     7     6     5     5
HEAT CONTENT      52    23     9     3    19     3    24    59     2    41    39    36     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/  7      CX,CY:  -3/ -5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  546  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  23.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  11.  19.  24.  29.  33.  34.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     2.   4.   6.   7.   8.   7.   5.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  10.  11.  12.  14.  15.  15.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010     INVEST 08/08/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  23.4 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 100.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.4 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.1 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  21.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010     INVEST 08/08/10  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010     INVEST 08/08/2010  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[Ivanhater]

12Z EURO has weak system in S. Central LA. Thursday.

Hard to tell exactly but it looks like Nola/Mississippi area and slides back east