ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[ROCK]

So, if what we are seeing off the coast of Panama City turns out to be the new center and the convection is currently blossoming over it, will this change anything?

track in not set in stone IMO, as we just now seeing a possible center that models can initialize off of....0z GFS coming out...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[brunota2003]

Naturally yes, the track is never set in stone with the models...but if it develops further south than the models indicate/initialize the low at currently, would the synoptic set up push it further west, longer over water?

[Steve]

Hey Rock,

GFS looks a lot faster. Maybe the flow is showing a hint there?

[ROCK]

Hey Rock,

GFS looks a lot faster. Maybe the flow is showing a hint there?

agree...strong high above...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

moves inland central LA....

[ROCK]

Naturally yes, the track is never set in stone with the models...but if it develops further south than the models indicate/initialize the low at currently, would the synoptic set up push it further west, longer over water?

true but this run anyway takes off the coast and along the coast before bringing inland around central LA /SW LA...

[Steve]

Looks like around southern Terrebonne Parish (Cocodrie, Dulac, etc.) joining with the NAM whereas the Operationals were looking more like eastern facing LA or SW MS in the 18z runs. It will be interesting to see what they and the ensembles put out (e.g. if they're a little faster and farther west or not). Then the other globals should start coming out within the hour (CMC, UKMET) then NOGAPS and then finally the ECMWF. I'm hopefully not staying up for that.

[South Texas Storms]

so is a texas landfall appearing less likely?

[ROCK]

so is a texas landfall appearing less likely?

well this run of the GFS would say so..... lets see if the remaining globals show the same....CMC up next then the HWRF (cough crap), GFDL and finally the ECM...aint staying up for the ECM...

[Ivanhater]

Well Canadian loops off NW Florida into Mississippi

[South Texas Storms]

ivan the regional cmc shows it moving wnw south of louisiana in 48 hours. did you see that run yet?

[Ivanhater]

ivan the regional cmc shows it moving wnw south of louisiana in 48 hours. did you see that run yet?

Just took a look...bombs it down to 985mb

I wonder why the regional and global Canadian are different

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i was wondering the same thing. the regional shows a tx/la landfall and the global shows a ms landfall. which one is usually more reliable?

[Ivanhater]

yeah i was wondering the same thing. the regional shows a tx/la landfall and the global shows a ms landfall. which one is usually more reliable?

Well they should be the same thing. The regional only goes out to 48 hours focused on North America. The global goes out to 144 hours (240 hours on the 00z run)

[South Texas Storms]

hmm thats very interesting...i have no idea why they are very different. the track is still up in the air i guess...

[xcool22]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/verifica ... dex_e.html

seeing if this help . GEM Regional and Global models info.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Env ... cale_Model

[Ivanhater]

HWRF...South of Pensacola into New Orleans before turning into Mississippi

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 72H

[SETXWXLADY]

I noticed some of these models have turned west after initializing from the low off shore. Every discussion I've read is different. So that really cleared things up for me.