ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Recon discussion

[dixiebreeze]

For when Recon begins today.

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD with plenty of missions.

KNHC 101515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 10 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z, 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 11/1630Z
D. 27.3N 86.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600, 0900, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 12/0500Z
D. 28.7N 89.3W
E. 12/0530Z TO 12/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: NOAA IS PLANNING SEVERAL RESEARCH MISSONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM.
A. G-IV NOAA 49 TAKEOFF 11/1730Z 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
B. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 11/2000Z 12,000 FT
C. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 12/0800Z 12,000 FT

[KWT]

Good to see we are going to have recon again!

[cycloneye]

Here we go as the plane has just departed from Keesler base.

[supercane]

Here is todays TCPOD with plenty of missions.

KNHC 101515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 10 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z, 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 11/1630Z
D. 27.3N 86.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600, 0900, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 12/0500Z
D. 28.7N 89.3W
E. 12/0530Z TO 12/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: NOAA IS PLANNING SEVERAL RESEARCH MISSONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM.
A. G-IV NOAA 49 TAKEOFF 11/1730Z 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
B. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 11/2000Z 12,000 FT
C. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 12/0800Z 12,000 FT

Actually everything above is scheduled for tomorrow, as NHC plans a day in advance. Today's plan, which was posted yesterday, includes the current flight and one in the early morning hours:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[cycloneye]

I know that todays TCPOD are for tommorow and Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

They are not going to find a well defined center..

[cycloneye]

Center was found.

[brunota2003]

Question is, is it worthy of a VDM? Seems so to me, and the lowest pressure was 1009...so, what will the highest winds be?

[GeneratorPower]

Looking at visible the system is clearly getting started. They may indeed find a well defined center here with recon.

[Aric Dunn]

Center was found.

lets see what they say because its looks more like a sharp wind shift and tight well defined center. radar and satellite do not show such a well defined feature. problem is we will probably have to wait till the next update unless during the time recon is out there things improve.

I may eat my words though... lol

[Aric Dunn]

Notice in the data that there was no true west wind.. only NE and then SW winds... seems it is still just a sharp wind shift..

[Ikester]

Center was found.

lets see what they say because its looks more like a sharp wind shift and tight well defined center. radar and satellite do not show such a well defined feature. problem is we will probably have to wait till the next update unless during the time recon is out there things improve.

I may eat my words though... lol

I like my crow with BBQ Sauce...

[cycloneye]

They have to go more south to see if there are west winds.

[brunota2003]

Notice in the data that there was no true west wind.. only NE and then SW winds... seems it is still just a sharp wind shift..

But it also depends on where they punched through the center at. You aren't going to see all 360 degrees in one pass. A pass from the NW to the SE would generally have winds from the NE/ENE, switching around to SW. I'd look for the more westerly winds on the NE to SW pass (or vice versa, depending on how they'd like to set it up).

[Aric Dunn]

Notice in the data that there was no true west wind.. only NE and then SW winds... seems it is still just a sharp wind shift..

But it also depends on where they punched through the center at. You aren't going to see all 360 degrees in one pass. A pass from the NW to the SE would generally have winds from the NE/ENE, switching around to SW. I'd look for the more westerly winds on the NE to SW pass (or vice versa, depending on how they'd like to set it up).

at best we have a broad very elongated circulation....

[brunota2003]

I would agree with that, but we knew that even last night from surface obs...the strongest surface winds were 25 knots, and the obs all pointed to a very weak, broad circulation. Things have not changed drastically from last night, so I would expect something similar thus far today.

[dixiebreeze]

Center was found.

What are the coordinates for the center?

[Dave]

Nothing in for the past 20 mins, still waiting...

[cycloneye]

Center was found.

What are the coordinates for the center?

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 258N, 837W, 25, 1009, LO