TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five advisories
TCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION
SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN
KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...
315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION
SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN
KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...
315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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HURAKAN
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468
WTNT35 KNHC 110547
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
200 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT35 KNHC 110547
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
200 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Brent
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 85.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 84.6W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 75SE 50SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 85.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 85.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 84.6W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 75SE 50SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 85.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF
25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY
IN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER
THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF
25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY
IN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER
THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
700 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 85.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST ON
THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
700 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 85.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST ON
THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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- Admin
- Posts: 139086
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 111444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION. IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 28.6N 88.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 89.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.4N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT45 KNHC 111444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION. IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 28.6N 88.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 89.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.4N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 111733
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
87.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE
COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN GUSTS...COULD REACH
THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT35 KNHC 111733
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
87.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE
COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN GUSTS...COULD REACH
THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
034
WTNT25 KNHC 112032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 87.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT25 KNHC 112032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 87.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Advisories
Last Advisory
MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 87.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
KNHC 112034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REMAINS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE
REMNANT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE REMNANT IS
LIKELY TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE REMNANT
REACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 87.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
KNHC 112034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REMAINS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE
REMNANT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE REMNANT IS
LIKELY TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE REMNANT
REACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
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- Contact:
521
WTNT45 KNHC 112035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD...
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND
IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 28.3N 87.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT45 KNHC 112035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD...
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND
IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 28.3N 87.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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