WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the system from the looks of that IR above there.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Catching up to current. First 21Z JTWC advisory and 15Z prognostic reasoning:
WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.5N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.6N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.7N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.4N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.9N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 111.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221757Z
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, A 221411Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, AND 16 KNOT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO, 55 NM TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY ABOVE TD 06W HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING FOR
DECREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND
ENABLING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND REORIENTS.
TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG WATER WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS CLOSE TO HAINAN, WHICH COULD IMPEDE SOME INFLOW. AFTER TAU
48, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN VIETNAM, WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFS WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BECAUSE IT ANALYZES THE STEERING RIDGE TO
WEAKEN MORE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 221500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221059Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING, SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. OBSERVATIONS 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
FROM XISHA DAO ISLAND, SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 16 KNOTS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF TD 06W ASSOCIATED WITH A FILLING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS VIGOROUS DUE TO ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE TUTT CELL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGRESS C),
AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER JAPAN AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
AFFECTS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN VIETNAM COAST.
CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO
THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. ADDITIONALLY, BASED ON THE PAST 48
HOURS OF MOTION, THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM XISHA DAO ISLAND AND DA NANG,
VIETNAM INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW, THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM
PRIOR TO TAU 72.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.5N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.6N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.7N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.4N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.9N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 111.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221757Z
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, A 221411Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, AND 16 KNOT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO, 55 NM TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY ABOVE TD 06W HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING FOR
DECREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND
ENABLING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND REORIENTS.
TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG WATER WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS CLOSE TO HAINAN, WHICH COULD IMPEDE SOME INFLOW. AFTER TAU
48, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN VIETNAM, WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFS WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BECAUSE IT ANALYZES THE STEERING RIDGE TO
WEAKEN MORE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 221500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221059Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING, SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. OBSERVATIONS 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
FROM XISHA DAO ISLAND, SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 16 KNOTS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF TD 06W ASSOCIATED WITH A FILLING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS VIGOROUS DUE TO ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE TUTT CELL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGRESS C),
AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER JAPAN AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
AFFECTS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN VIETNAM COAST.
CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO
THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. ADDITIONALLY, BASED ON THE PAST 48
HOURS OF MOTION, THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM XISHA DAO ISLAND AND DA NANG,
VIETNAM INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW, THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM
PRIOR TO TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Still expected to become our next TS this season but its certainly making a hard time of it isn't it, just like most systems in the WPAC this season it seems!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Dvorak classification from SSD shows T numbers high enough for upgrade:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/2032 UTC 16.2N 111.7E T2.5/2.5 06W
22/1501 UTC 15.8N 112.6E T2.0/2.0 06W
TXPN27 KNES 222105
SIMWIR
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 22/2032Z
C. 16.2N
D. 111.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET-=2.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/2032 UTC 16.2N 111.7E T2.5/2.5 06W
22/1501 UTC 15.8N 112.6E T2.0/2.0 06W
TXPN27 KNES 222105
SIMWIR
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 22/2032Z
C. 16.2N
D. 111.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET-=2.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
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WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.8N 111.0E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 18.1N 107.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 250000UTC 19.8N 105.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 260000UTC 21.0N 103.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.8N 111.0E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 18.1N 107.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 250000UTC 19.8N 105.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 260000UTC 21.0N 103.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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JTWC joining the upgrade party:
WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.2N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.9N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.0N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 110.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.2N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.9N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.0N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 110.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
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WTPQ20 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 16.2N 109.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 18.2N 106.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 250600UTC 19.5N 104.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 260600UTC 20.5N 102.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 16.2N 109.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 18.2N 106.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 250600UTC 19.5N 104.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 260600UTC 20.5N 102.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
0 likes
Ah so we have number 5 in the WPAC after a fair break, will be interesting to see whether it actually lifts out to the NW or not.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.4N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 109.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
230440Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSTION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 230242Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PREVIOUSLY CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HAS FILLED
AND MOVED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTION AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MSI INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST. TS MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH
RECURVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL ERRORS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 230300Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222211Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOOSELY
WRAPPED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS STILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER JAPAN THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FILL AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48 AND TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW
LEVEL STEERING FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.
C. BY TAU 96, TS 06W SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM. CURRENT
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND WBAR WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHWARD AFTER AROUND
TAU 36. THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM
MODELS.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.4N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 109.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
230440Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSTION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 230242Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PREVIOUSLY CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HAS FILLED
AND MOVED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTION AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MSI INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST. TS MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH
RECURVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL ERRORS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 230300Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222211Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOOSELY
WRAPPED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS STILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER JAPAN THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FILL AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48 AND TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW
LEVEL STEERING FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.
C. BY TAU 96, TS 06W SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM. CURRENT
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND WBAR WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHWARD AFTER AROUND
TAU 36. THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM
MODELS.//
NNNN
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WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 16.7N 109.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 18.7N 106.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 20.5N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 16.7N 109.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 18.7N 106.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 20.5N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
0 likes
Now upto 40kts and the motion to the NW continues as well, probably not going to get much stronger then it is right now though.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.3N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.2N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.9N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.3N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.7N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 108.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.3N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.2N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.9N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.3N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.7N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 108.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
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Good call Supercane as they upped it to 50kts, to be honest thats a little higher then I was expecting and given the way its wrapped itself up its not totally impossible this makes it to 65kts before landfall if it curves up enough.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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