ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Ugh, back to the no recurve runs again.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 251837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC WED AUG 25 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100825 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100825  1800   100826  0600   100826  1800   100827  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.6N  52.7W   21.8N  55.2W   22.8N  57.0W   23.7N  58.2W
BAMD    20.6N  52.7W   22.3N  54.6W   23.9N  56.5W   25.2N  58.5W
BAMM    20.6N  52.7W   21.9N  54.8W   23.1N  56.6W   24.2N  58.1W
LBAR    20.6N  52.7W   22.2N  54.5W   23.7N  56.4W   24.8N  58.3W
SHIP        75KTS          77KTS          83KTS          86KTS
DSHP        75KTS          77KTS          83KTS          86KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100827  1800   100828  1800   100829  1800   100830  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.5N  59.3W   29.5N  62.4W   31.7N  63.8W   34.3N  61.8W
BAMD    26.5N  60.8W   29.1N  63.9W   32.3N  62.9W   35.9N  62.5W
BAMM    25.8N  60.0W   29.0N  63.1W   32.1N  62.6W   35.3N  62.0W
LBAR    26.0N  60.3W   29.1N  63.1W   32.9N  61.4W   35.7N  55.4W
SHIP        89KTS          96KTS          93KTS          80KTS
DSHP        89KTS          96KTS          93KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.6N LONCUR =  52.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  18.5N LONM12 =  50.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  17.1N LONM24 =  47.5W
WNDCUR =   75KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   75KT
CENPRS =  982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  90NM


[Ivanhater]

[hurricaneCW]

Why are there three runs pointing toward the east coast? I'm pretty sure this one is turning at 60-62W, it's already heading almost to the NNW.

[AdamFirst]

Why are there three runs pointing toward the east coast? I'm pretty sure this one is turning at 60-62W, it's already heading almost to the NNW.

Because they project the high to rebuild, creating a blockade over the North Atlantic.

[cpdaman]

Why are there three runs pointing toward the east coast? I'm pretty sure this one is turning at 60-62W, it's already heading almost to the NNW.

lol that has got to be an error at least w/ the HWRF

[sandyb]

where do yall get these casue everyone i look out keeps taking it up and does not turn it back towards the states

[hurricaneCW]

She's well east of the NHC track already, this one is definitely not making it further than 60W unless the building ridge really turns it westward, but that would have to be one powerful ridge to do that.

[AdamFirst]

I would hardly consider Danielle to be "well east" of the points.

Looks like she's stair stepping towards the west. Someone get a wobble watching expert in here.

[Ivanhater]

You will notice some posts being deleted...Stay on topic.

[terrapintransit]

UNBELIEVABLE!! Another run to the west!

[terrapintransit]

How can the GFS be such the opposite of the other models?

[ROCK]

How can the GFS be such the opposite of the other models?

Bro, wait for the 18Z GFS...few hours....

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking an Esther-like loop off the NE coast might be in the offing...

[Blown Away]

If the NW back to the CONUS models are right that means a building ridge will be pushing Danielle NW and that same ridge should be blocking Earl from recurving, because Earl should be almost due S of Danielle at that time? That solution doesn't make sense?

[webke]

I'm thinking an Esther-like loop off the NE coast might be in the offing...

Do you have an image of that loop.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking an Esther-like loop off the NE coast might be in the offing...

Do you have an image of that loop.

(Just in the reverse direction in this case. The intensity of Esther is probably overestimated on approach, I doubt it collapsed from a major to a tropical storm immediately only to hold its own afterward.)

[webke]

I'm thinking an Esther-like loop off the NE coast might be in the offing...

Do you have an image of that loop.

(Just in the reverse direction in this case. The intensity of Esther is probably overestimated on approach, I doubt it collapsed from a major to a tropical storm immediately only to hold its own afterward.)

Thanks a lot

[KWT]

Without a doubt a real threat to Bermuda now...

The ensembles are suggesting at least this gets closer to the states and thus whilst the op runs are broadly in good agreement...I'm not ready to discount that despite what I personally expect to occur...

I'm almost tempted by those models to jump back towards the fence....but not there yet!

[KWT]

GFS maybe a smidge east of its previous run but probably would still give decent winds to Bermuda, I suspect it will fully recurve on this run though.