ATL: EARL - Models

[cycloneye]

Goes to fishland

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 231556
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1556 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100823 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100823  1200   100824  0000   100824  1200   100825  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  17.5W   11.3N  20.3W   12.1N  22.9W   13.4N  25.3W
BAMD    11.0N  17.5W   12.0N  20.1W   13.3N  22.5W   14.8N  24.8W
BAMM    11.0N  17.5W   11.8N  20.3W   12.9N  23.0W   14.2N  25.6W
LBAR    11.0N  17.5W   11.6N  19.9W   12.7N  22.4W   14.1N  25.0W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          36KTS          45KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          36KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100825  1200   100826  1200   100827  1200   100828  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  27.9W   17.0N  32.7W   19.4N  36.3W   22.6N  40.1W
BAMD    16.4N  27.1W   20.0N  31.4W   22.9N  35.4W   24.4N  35.7W
BAMM    15.3N  28.3W   17.7N  33.1W   20.3N  37.0W   23.2N  40.0W
LBAR    15.2N  27.7W   17.5N  32.2W   19.1N  36.6W   21.3N  41.8W
SHIP        56KTS          71KTS          72KTS          68KTS
DSHP        56KTS          71KTS          72KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  17.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  15.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  13.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

Wow thats very far east indeed to lift out like it does!

[cycloneye]

[Scorpion]

Let's get these fish out of the way now so we can get a good system to head west in the next few weeks

[Riptide]

This system won't be fishing any time soon if the 12z GFS is correct.

[Aric Dunn]

well in most cases if the second system is close enough the first it will follow the weakness. however there is still some strong westerly flow ( same with danielle at first) at could hold the system in place a little longer. if you remember when danielle was developing the models every run wanted to kick it out of the iTCZ very quickly and we know it takes time. so that will be what to watch with this system.

[CrazyC83]

Not exactly fishland, since Cape Verde may have a rare hurricane to deal with if the models are right...

[Hurricaneman]

The first run of the hurricane models tend to be wrong on the first run, we should look for trends in the coming days

[ColinDelia]

12z gfs takes this to what is probably a strong tropical storm in 162 hours. 996 mb

[Ivanhater]

Yes, that is Danielle and Earl in 16 days..they combine and loop back around...

[perk]

Yes, that is Danielle and Earl in 16 days..they combine and loop back around...

Ivan what's more interesting is the storm in the southwest carribean.

[Wx_Warrior]

And @ 384...i'll give that a tad more time.

[Ivanhater]

Yep. Made a post about it in the Long range model thread in Talking tropics. Could be some real trouble...

[barometerJane61]

Man,looks like we could have two or three named storms floating around in the Atlantic in the next 4 or 5 days

[Frank2]

Makes sense that 96L would also recurve - it's close enough to Danielle that the trough (and Danielle's wake) will still be in place...

Frank

[cycloneye]

12z CMC tracks behind Danielle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Frank2]

Looks like we'll see a break of at least 3-4 days or more after both systems recurve (if they recurve)...

[Buck]

Yes, that is Danielle and Earl in 16 days..they combine and loop back around...

Wow, wouldn't that be something... not only to deal with two storms combining and looping in the Atlantic... but to deal with that AND a pretty fearsome storm in the Caribbean, heading into the Gulf.

[Vortex]

Once we get the 2 fishspinners out of the way look out if the models are too be believed!

[Blown Away]

Why does the 2pm update say 96L is moving westward and the models basically have this system moving WNW to NW rate now?