ATL: EARL - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks a bit west

Our local met seems to think that the track will head west because he believes that the front that is supposed to turn Earl is moving much slower than originally predicted. Any opinions on that?

Well the NWS Office in Eastern Maine, has mentioned that the timing for Earl has been pushed back at bit alreay:

000
FXUS61 KCAR 312054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS HURRICANE EARL. THE
POTENTIAL LIST OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA ARE TROUBLESOME GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
HAS GIVEN US VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OR EARL
AS IT TRAVELS NORTH INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS TRACK EARL OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AS IT MOVES NORTH FROM JUST OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS TRACK HAS WOBBLED
WEST AND THEN EAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS IF TRACK ERROR WERE
NOT ENOUGH...THE ARRIVAL OF EARL ALSO IS IN QUESTION. THINGS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED SOME AND THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.



Source:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[SouthFloridawx]

Could someone be kind enough to point out the feature that is going to break down the ridge?

Please...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Could someone be kind enough to point out the feature that is going to break down the ridge?

Please...

It is the deep trough currently over Western North America. As seen in this 500 mb Chart from 12hr Z/UCT.

[hurricaneCW]

It's the trough that will finally end this ridiculous late summer heat wave which I'm sick of although I know the heat will return, but hopefully not the hurricanes.

[UpTheCreek]

It's the trough that will finally end this ridiculous late summer heat wave which I'm sick of although I know the heat will return, but hopefully not the hurricanes.

I hear that! It's been an absolutely BEASTLY summer here in NC. Hottest I can remember. Earl can take it with him to Canada.

[SouthFloridawx]

Could someone be kind enough to point out the feature that is going to break down the ridge?
Please...

[imghttp://weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/sai_100.gif[/img]
It is the deep trough currently over Western North America. As seen in this 500 mb Chart from 12hr Z/UCT.

Thank you by the way...

[Nimbus]

So Earl is going to the west of and behind the current high sitting on the east coast of the US. That will work as long as Earl doesn't decide to pick up speed and head west early with the steering currents. He has been steadily sawing his way NW into the ridge thus far, so I'm only concerned for the Carolinas if he stalls.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 010052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100901 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.6N  69.2W   24.2N  71.6W   26.1N  73.6W   28.4N  75.1W
BAMD    22.6N  69.2W   24.4N  71.2W   26.9N  73.2W   29.9N  74.7W
BAMM    22.6N  69.2W   24.5N  71.2W   26.7N  72.9W   29.5N  74.2W
LBAR    22.6N  69.2W   24.6N  71.0W   27.0N  72.9W   29.5N  74.2W
SHIP       115KTS         113KTS         116KTS         116KTS
DSHP       115KTS         113KTS         116KTS         116KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  0000   100904  0000   100905  0000   100906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.8N  75.3W   35.8N  70.1W   41.9N  60.7W   49.1N  49.0W
BAMD    33.1N  74.9W   39.5N  70.5W   48.9N  65.9W   55.5N  72.1W
BAMM    32.4N  74.1W   38.2N  69.6W   45.4N  62.2W   53.6N  55.9W
LBAR    32.2N  74.7W   37.4N  70.5W   44.2N  59.2W   44.1N  40.1W
SHIP       111KTS          94KTS          69KTS          40KTS
DSHP       111KTS          94KTS          59KTS          26KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.6N LONCUR =  69.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  20.8N LONM12 =  67.4W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  19.6N LONM24 =  65.2W
WNDCUR =  115KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =  115KT
CENPRS =  940MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =  175NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 175NM
 
$$
NNNN



[terrapintransit]

This run looks too close for comfort...

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-18/sfc5f72.gif

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The model trends are good news tonight and are aligning with my forecast for this system (recurve away from the U.S) from several days ago. The NHC track is now a tad on the left side of the consensus so a slight nudge right for the 3-5 day part of the cone could be in store for this advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z NAM - 24 HRS


00Z NAM - 48 HRS


00Z NAM - 54 HRS


00Z NAM - 66 HRS

[sponger]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 010052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100901 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.6N  69.2W   24.2N  71.6W   26.1N  73.6W   28.4N  75.1W
BAMD    22.6N  69.2W   24.4N  71.2W   26.9N  73.2W   29.9N  74.7W
BAMM    22.6N  69.2W   24.5N  71.2W   26.7N  72.9W   29.5N  74.2W
LBAR    22.6N  69.2W   24.6N  71.0W   27.0N  72.9W   29.5N  74.2W
SHIP       115KTS         113KTS         116KTS         116KTS
DSHP       115KTS         113KTS         116KTS         116KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  0000   100904  0000   100905  0000   100906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.8N  75.3W   35.8N  70.1W   41.9N  60.7W   49.1N  49.0W
BAMD    33.1N  74.9W   39.5N  70.5W   48.9N  65.9W   55.5N  72.1W
BAMM    32.4N  74.1W   38.2N  69.6W   45.4N  62.2W   53.6N  55.9W
LBAR    32.2N  74.7W   37.4N  70.5W   44.2N  59.2W   44.1N  40.1W
SHIP       111KTS          94KTS          69KTS          40KTS
DSHP       111KTS          94KTS          59KTS          26KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.6N LONCUR =  69.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  20.8N LONM12 =  67.4W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  19.6N LONM24 =  65.2W
WNDCUR =  115KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =  115KT
CENPRS =  940MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =  175NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 175NM
 
$$
NNNN



No Gap brings it in. A disaster if it panned out. Lets see what tomorrows run brings. Likely recurve but I be ready from obx north.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow, that NOGAPS would be a disaster. A hit on the Carolina coast and then a hit in Conn., Mass., and Maine. That track would go right up over Boston almost.

[dixiebreeze]

NOGAPS is pretty good on the shorter term tracking.

[Steve]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS looks to make it blustery for the East Coast. As always, click to zoom.

edit to add the updated QPF valid 00z 9/1
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[brunota2003]

Is that run more east, west, or the same as the other recent runs? It seems that run would be cutting it very, very close to the coast.

[Steve]

It is fairly close. If it ended up verifying, there would be at least close to tropical storm conditions all the way up the coast. Then we'd have to see if Earl curved out away from MA as a lot of the models have been indicating, showing a relatively sharp recurve. The flip side would be if some of the energy got drawn to the north or northwest as it neared CT/RI/MA. That sometimes happens with interaction between a tropical system heading NNW-NNE toward Southern New England and approaching lows from Eastern Canada. GFS isn't extreme with it, but if its track is on, I wouldn't rule out gales by any stretch (acknowledging that everyone in Southern New England is used to gales). <--- all just my opinion on what the GFS might show if it was right.

[SunnyThoughts]

UKMET @ 72 hours\

[Steve]

Damn. UKMET is bringing the wood like Reggie Bush.

[Ivanhater]

The Nogaps slams New York and the entire Eastern seaboard. It is the Nogaps though