WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[supercane]

SUBJ: TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 011
WTPN32 PGTW 310900
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.3N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 37.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 41.4N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 40.8N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 128.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 38.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 41.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 39.5N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 127.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. KOMPASU CROSSED OKINAWA AROUND 0730Z
AT WHICH TIME MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKED AT 29 KNOTS (GUSTING TO
38 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS NOW PAST OKINAWA AND ON COURSE TO TRACK
INTO THE YELLOW SEA. ALL DVORAK FIXING AGENCIES ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING 5.5 FOR A FINAL-T NUMBER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 AND
96.
B. TY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP
LAYER RIDGING CENTERED TO THE EAST. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER ASIA WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE BY TAU 24 AND
ALLOW FOR RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, AROUND 021200Z. DECREASED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT NORTH OF 35N AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PREVENT AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE PEAK
INTENSITY REAMINS AT 105 KNOTS. THE MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE EGRR TRACKER PERSISTS AS A WESTERN OUTLIER AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOWING THE CONSENSUS AND PULLING IT WEST. AS A
RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS AND
FASTER AT TAU 48 - 72.
C. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL KOMPASU WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.
THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE
COMPLETE PRIOR TO DAY 4 IN THE VICINITY OF MISAWA.//
NNNN


WTPQ22 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 27.4N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 33.0N 123.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 021200UTC 38.7N 125.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 031200UTC 42.4N 133.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Macrocane]

Finally the WPAC managed to produce the first major typhoon of the season, it must be one of the latest occurences ever, stay safe!

[KWT]

That track would be VERY noteable indeed if it came off, a system coming in just to the north of Seoul would certainly make things at the very least gusty and miserable!

Good to see the WPAC finally coming to life though, amazing how similar globally this year has been to 1998 so far!!!

[HURAKAN]

small but intense system

[KWT]

It looks very good though the western section of the storm doesn't look quite as good as the eastern side at the moment, but for sure its a good looking system.

[Infdidoll]

This Naval Aerographer's mate (naval weatherman) keeps a pretty good blog and also does video reports: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Spetrm/show.html

I enjoy reading what he has to say and watching his videos. He's done some good analysis of these storms.

[Chacor]

Down to 75kt from JMA.

[Infdidoll]

The damage reports from northern Okinawa:

Power outages to about 30,000 homes and fallen street lights, monorail and bus suspension, 232 flights cancelled affecting 94,710,002 people, 7 reported injuries, vehicles overturned, windows broken, collapse of tin-roofed huts.

No reports of fatalities, though, and that is definitely good news.

[HURAKAN]

looking good

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 37.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 39.7N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 40.9N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 40.7N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 125.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NAMTHEUN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED EYE, WHICH CONFIRMS (WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE)
THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION. A 312156Z TRMM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND
INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH ARE ALSO
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BETWEEN
TAU 12 AND TAU 24. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS, FURTHER INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINC BOUNDARY, AND
MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU
36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET)
NEAR TAU 24, CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD, AND COMPLETE ET BEFORE
PASSING NORTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN


WTPQ22 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 32.3N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 38.9N 127.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 030600UTC 42.0N 135.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[supercane]

Still respectable on vis:


ASCAT pass:


KMA forecast:

WTKO20 RKSL 010300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010300UTC 31.3N 124.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 19KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011500UTC 34.0N 124.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
24HR
POSITION 020300UTC 37.6N 126.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
36HR
POSITION 021500UTC 39.7N 129.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
48HR
POSITION 030300UTC 41.2N 136.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 040300UTC 42.2N 150.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 999HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[KWT]

Still forecasted to come very close to Seoul, this one is going to need very close watching, esp if it still comes in as a decent Typhoon.

[oaba09]

Hope everyone that got hit is ok.....This is sill a significant system that needs to be watched closely...

[Chacor]

The typhoon is just flying now, motion is 360/20 (north at 23 mph). Down to 70 kt, landfall forecast near the inter-Korean border in 12 hours as a 55 knot STS.

WTPQ22 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 34.3N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 40.3N 129.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 031200UTC 42.5N 139.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTJP23 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1007 KOMPASU (1007) 970 HPA
AT 34.3N 124.8E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 38.0N 125.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 40.3N 129.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 42.5N 139.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[victoryahk]

Hey guys,

I am in the US military stationed in Korea, Osan Air Base to be exact (just south of Seoul). How bad is this storm going to be for us? They haven't been very clear just been making sandbags all day and are now locked down inside the base.

[Chacor]

JMA has the storm weakening before hitting the Koreas; JTWC is calling for landfall as a minimal typhoon. Effects should start in Seoul probably around dawn, I'd extrapolate from the forecasts. Just get ready for some typhoon-strength winds/gusts and the rain.

[Chacor]

JMA down to a minimal 65 knot typhoon.

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 36.1N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.1N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 39.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 41.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 42.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 42.0N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 39.1N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 36.8N 126.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 011745Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A STRONG LLCC SIGNATURE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS
BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KUNSAN AND SEOSAN
INDICATING 40 TO 46 KNOTS. THESE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUPPORT
THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII AT TAU 0. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK. THE MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST IS
THAT THE TIMING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EARLIER.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COOLER SST AND INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
TO 30-40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING. THE
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT AND BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU
24 TO 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//




WTPQ22 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 38.5N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 29KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 42.4N 135.9E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



Current vis:


Microwave:

[supercane]

JTWC 03Z advisory out early, still keeps Kompasu a typhoon.

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 37.9N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.9N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 40.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 42.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 42.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 41.6N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
25 NM NORTH OF SEOUL, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 07W (LIONROCK) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


TPPN12 PGTW 020020
A. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 01/2332Z
C. 37.8N
D. 127.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS