ATL: EARL - Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL A LITTLE WEAKER...ACCELERATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 53.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. EARL HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 55 MPH...90
KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AND SIZE OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTNT42 KNHC 282042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS
CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY
OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG
THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN
INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY
DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND
WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE
WIND RADII.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.5N 54.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 57.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 59.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.3N 61.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 63.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.0N 67.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 70.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 72.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

279
WTNT22 KNHC 290300
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 55.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Finally updated graphics. the cone has not changed much at all. still showing a significant turn to the north after passing the islands.

[artist]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...NEAR THE CENTER OF EARL.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane]

For completeness:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 290314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB.
WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT
APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A
GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT
OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS
AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72
HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE
ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL
WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING
AFTER 96 HR.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
FONT12 KNHC 290303
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
TROPICAL STORM 66 31 17 12 11 9 25
HURRICANE 33 68 83 87 88 89 72
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 31 55 48 34 28 27 33
HUR CAT 2 2 10 24 28 26 25 20
HUR CAT 3 X 2 8 19 24 26 15
HUR CAT 4 1 1 2 5 9 10 3
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 2 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 105KT 100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

Code: Select all

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   7(22)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   3(23)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  17(29)   2(31)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

GONAIVES       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   1(17)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  15(25)   1(26)   X(26)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)  19(40)   1(41)   X(41)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   1(17)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  31(42)  13(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  13(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  24(35)   7(42)   X(42)   X(42)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   7( 7)  43(50)  24(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)  22(22)  28(50)   3(53)   1(54)   X(54)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   7( 7)  35(42)  15(57)   1(58)   1(59)   X(59)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   1( 1)  17(18)  12(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

BARBUDA        34  1  20(21)  51(72)   8(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
BARBUDA        50  X   3( 3)  45(48)   9(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)  22(22)   6(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)

ANTIGUA        34  1  15(16)  41(57)   5(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
ANTIGUA        50  X   2( 2)  25(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

GUADELOUPE     34  1   8( 9)  20(29)   4(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

AVES           34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

DOMINICA       34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MARTINIQUE     34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAINT LUCIA    34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARBADOS       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT62 KNHC 290326
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1130 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

AT 1130 PM AST...0330 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 56.2W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 56.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 56.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 15SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 56.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 59.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.9N 61.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 56.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF EARL OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED IN
A LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. EARL APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE DANIELLE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING
AWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
ICON CONSENSUS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16 IS LARGELY
BASED ON CONTINUITY. EARL WILL SOON REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A
BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS
FASTER LATE IN THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.9N 56.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 59.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 17.9N 61.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 18.7N 63.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 19.9N 65.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

110
WTNT32 KNHC 291159
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[abajan]

The graphic at the top of this forum needs to show that Earl is now a hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

The graphic at the top of this forum needs to show that Earl is now a hurricane.

It will update shortly.

[abajan]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

774
WTNT32 KNHC 300233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

019
WTNT42 KNHC 300236
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE
SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM
THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT
30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING
AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...RAINBANDS APPROACHING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI