ATL: EARL - Advisories

Website · #41 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:36 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ENE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 62.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 62.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 61.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 85NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN
RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT
AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND
72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 18.3N 62.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

#42 Postby **supercane** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:55 am

000
FONT12 KNHC 300833
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.

- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 2 7
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 3 11
TROPICAL STORM X 1 1 1 5 21 43
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 94 75 39
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 10 9 6 11 20 33 25
HUR CAT 2 58 32 15 23 24 22 10
HUR CAT 3 29 48 49 39 32 15 3
HUR CAT 4 2 9 26 22 15 4 1
HUR CAT 5 1 1 4 4 4 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95KT 105KT 115KT 115KT 115KT 100KT 85KT

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

Code: Select all

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   7(23)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   4(20)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   3(21)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   2(33)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   1(23)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GONAIVES       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PONCE          34  4  11(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PONCE          50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN       34 10  33(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
SAN JUAN       50  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAN JUAN       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS   34 64  14(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
SAINT THOMAS   50  5  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAINT THOMAS   64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34 39   9(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
SAINT CROIX    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT MAARTEN  50 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
SAINT MAARTEN  64 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARBUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARBUDA        50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GUADELOUPE     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AVES           34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

DOMINICA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 6:53 am

WTNT32 KNHC 301147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

#44 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:47 am

354
WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM AST AND 300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

yzerfan · #45 Postby **yzerfan** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:01 am

WOCN32 CWHX 301200
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.26 AM ADT Monday
30 August 2010.

This is a preliminary statement regarding possible future impact of
hurricane Earl in Eastern Canada.

Based on the large-scale weather pattern and computer models..
Hurricane Earl could possibly..Repeat..Possibly..Affect weather in
Eastern Canada in the Friday to Sunday timeframe. There is a very
broad range of future tracks for hurricane Earl which is now just
north of the caribbean islands. The range of possible track scenarios
are as far west as Maine to as far east as Eastern Newfoundland.
Thus..It is much too early to speak of weather impacts specific to
this storm. Regular forecasts for Earl could begin Tuesday afternoon
or evening.

The primary message at this point is to stay tuned for updated
Forecasts under this header and the CHC website..And to note
That the Friday to Sunday timeframe is the period of possible
Impact or closest approach to Eastern Canada.

End fogarty

Website · #46 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Website · #47 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 2:00 pm

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
300 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EYE OF EARL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 64.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

#48 Postby **supercane** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:53 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 302047
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM AST AND 900 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Hurricane EARL Forecast/Advisory

000
WTNT22 KNHC 302046
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 64.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......175NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 170SE 100SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 64.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 64.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 125SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 125SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
FONT12 KNHC 302047
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115
KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.

- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 2 7
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 4 8
TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 7 29 36
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 92 64 49
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 6 22 35 29
HUR CAT 2 1 2 5 14 27 17 11
HUR CAT 3 18 23 30 40 29 10 7
HUR CAT 4 75 63 51 32 13 2 1
HUR CAT 5 6 11 12 7 3 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125KT 130KT 130KT 125KT 115KT 95KT 70KT

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 23(41)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 29(46) X(46)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) X(35)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GRAND TURK 34 1 9(10) 25(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
GRAND TURK 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GONAIVES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

PONCE 34 26 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)

SAN JUAN 34 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
SAN JUAN 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)

SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT52 KNHC 301953
TCEAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
400 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

AT 4 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Website · #49 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
700 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
OBSERVATIONS IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Website · #50 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:00 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
900 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. SAINT THOMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58
MPH...93 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Website · #51 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...
AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Website · #52 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:03 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
300 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 66.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND
PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:58 am

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL GETTING FARTHER FROM PUERTO RICO...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41043...LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE WINDS OF
63 MPH...101 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
IN PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EARL. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM AST AND 900 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......175NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 170SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 125SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 72.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 125SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 73.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 33.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 40.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 48.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 66.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER REPORTED
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT...AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
OF 112 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 931 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 115 KT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...A TRMM OVERPASS AND DATA FROM
THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D RADAR INDICATE THAT EARL HAS STARTED AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
ARRIVE IN EARL NEAR 12Z TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY
FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 295/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
DIRECTIONS BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST HWRF AND THE RIGHT-MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFDL AND GFDN
MODELS SUGGEST THAT EARL COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
SO...AND THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE HURRICANE COMPLETES THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT QUICKLY ENOUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...EARL IS FORECAST
TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTH. THESE FACTORS COULD
PREVENT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THE GFDL/GFDN SCENARIO WITH A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BASED ON THE HURRICANE COMPLETING THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE DRY AIR NOT REACHING THE HURRICANE
CORE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES EARL OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 20.5N 66.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.3W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 72.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 73.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 33.5N 74.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 40.0N 69.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 48.0N 60.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

yzerfan · #54 Postby **yzerfan** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:47 am

WOCN31 CWHX 311200
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.11 AM ADT Tuesday
31 August 2010.

This is a preliminary statement regarding future impact of hurricane
Earl in Eastern Canada.

Based on the large-scale weather pattern and computer models..
Hurricane Earl will likely play a role in the weather over
Eastern Canada in the Friday to Sunday timeframe. There remains a
broad range of future tracks for hurricane Earl which is now north
Of Puerto Rico and moving northwest. The range of possible track
scenarios are as far west as Maine to as far east as eastern
Newfoundland. Thus..It is too early to describe details of potential
Impacts..But important to realize that a storm of this nature
Affecting land would bring heavy rains..Strong winds..And
Large waves. Regular 6-hourly forecasts from the CHC will commence
Today at 3 PM Atlantic time. As time goes on..We will provide
increasing level of detail as is appropriate.

At this point..Probabilistic computer models show a 40 percent
Chance of tropical storm-force winds (about 70 km/h) over Western
Nova Scotia by the weekend. The probability of hurricane-force winds
Over land is low at this time since we are still about 4 days away..
But we will have more information on that in our afternoon technical
discussion.

The primary message at this point is to stay tuned for updated
Forecasts under this header and the CHC website..And to note
That the Friday to Sunday timeframe is the period of impact or
closest approach to Eastern Canada.

End fogarty/March

HurrMark · #55 Postby **HurrMark** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:54 am

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Position Estimate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT32 KNHC 311452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

artist · #56 Postby **artist** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:13 am

Public Forecast Southeast Bahamas

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, MONDAY, AUGUST 30TH, 2010.

WARNINGS: A TROPICAL STORM-WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF INAGUA,MAYAGUANA,ACKILNS,CROOKED ISLANDS AND LONG CAY OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

GENERAL SITUATION:HURRICANE EARL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NEARER TO THE ISLANDS.

WARNINGS:SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS IN EFFECT AND BOATERS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS:

WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING,BECOMING CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE BOATERS (ADVISORY): SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

WINDS: NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SEAS RUNNING: 6 TO 9 FEET BUT UP TO 15 FEET IN GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 91°F 33°C LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 79°F 26°C.

SUNRISE: 6:50 AM SUNSET: 7:30 PM
MOONSET: 12:47 PM MOONRISE: 11:39 PM.

HIGH TIDE: 12:51 PM LOW TIDE: 7:16 PM.

EXTENDED FORECAST: HURRICANE EARL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.......RESIDENTS WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY:

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND WINDY WITH WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS: NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET BUT UP TO 15 FEET IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 8 TO 12 FEET BUT UP TO 25 FEET IN GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

FORECAST FOR THURSDAY:

WEATHER:VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 10-15 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET BUT UP TO 15 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELLS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMS AND 2-4 FEET UP TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELLS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL WEATHER: A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BUT HAS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER: IAN V. MCKENZIE

(that is the latest posted at http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/index. ... tsoutheast )

HurrMark · #57 Postby **HurrMark** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:50 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 311749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HurrMark · #58 Postby **HurrMark** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:44 pm

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT32 KNHC 312042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Website · #59 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...235 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI...1545 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 31, 2010 6:54 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 312351
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...235 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI...1545 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

Who is online