WPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression (99W)

[supercane]

Don't really get the numbering of late. Seems like 97W took up old 96W, and so to cover the obvious circulation seen on ASCAT, 99W is born.

Any, here's the 99W page link on NRL.

[StormingB81]

I was looking at the last night and was wondering if thats what they were going to do. Guess we shal lwatch and see what happends. Either way looks like just a little rain in a couple of days. Moving I think a little to quick and to close to land to becomes anything if it stays on the same path and come by Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

also doesnt this storm look small to anyone compared to thes we have seen.

[KWT]

At the very least this area has some decent convection nearby it, maybe has a shot at becoming weak we will see!

[StormingB81]

Anyone think 97 and 99 can merge?

[StormingB81]

ANd supercane with your numbers I bet you the old 96W thats just been hanging around there begins 90 either today or tomorrow..LOL I just think it would be funny how all tehse storms are losing and gaining numbers like its going out of style

[supercane]

Morning vis looks pretty good:


But not as impressive when you see what lies beneath:


T number in depression range:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/2032 UTC 21.1N 136.7E T2.0/2.0 99W

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 21N 136E NW 10 KT.

[StormingB81]

COuld have a fun day if they think it may get over 57mph and we begin a cleanup

[supercane]

Anyone think 97 and 99 can merge?

Not merge necessarily, but as 99W develops its circulation may ensnare and kill off any chance for 97W to form. The synoptic situation looks like a reverse oriented monsoon trough, and NRL/JTWC basically picked two areas along it (97W and 99W). The eastern one (99W) looks to be dominant and the most likely to develop. You can see this on the surface analysis from the OPC or this one from HKO:

[StormingB81]

WHat are the chances..is there a percentage yet of how favorable it is for 99 to develop into anything... I am just asking cause that one is moving wnw and is around Okinawa so I am just wondering

[supercane]

No agency covering the Western Pacific that I know of issues percentages, but it seems like the JTWC is developing this. In their TWO from yesterday they gave 99W a poor chance. Repeated again:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
140.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. TUTT CELLS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EAST ARE FAVORABLY ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.

CIRA's experimental tropical cyclogenesis site appears to be 15% anywhere along the monsoon trough:

[StormingB81]

I am know pro but looking at it how much better it looks I bet you we are looking at a fair to good sometime today.

[StormingB81]

I think 99 will start sucking in all the moisture around it here soon...what do you guys think?

[supercane]

Latest microwave imagery:

[StormingB81]

like I said before it looks like it is sucking 97 in to it. Could be an interesting weekend here in the WPAC

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass missed to the east:

[StormingB81]

Maybe someone who can see all the models with wind sheer and everything can look at this. To the naked eye it looks pretty good. And it looks liek it is sucking all that moisture plus 97 along with it. or if I have them mixed up and it is 97 the big one and 99 is being sucked into it. But If it does strengthen quick guess we will have not alot of time to tie things down and clean stuff up.

[supercane]

T numbers back down per SAB Dvorak classification:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/0232 UTC 22.1N 135.2E T1.5/2.0 99W
25/2032 UTC 21.1N 136.7E T2.0/2.0 99W

TXPN29 KNES 260319
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)
B. 26/0232Z
C. 22.1N
D. 135.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .3 DEGREES BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...LIDDICK

Quite close to JMA 00Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 21N 134E WNW 10 KT.

[StormingB81]

see thats how looking wiht the naked eye doesnt help cause to me it looks better and better. But guess not

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZAUG2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 252337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN